P2008: Must-Read - Mark Halperin's Thoughts on Candidates

Wow. Evan Smith and Paul Burka of Texas Monthly have each posted notes on comments made by Mark Halperin in Austin, Texas two nights ago. Halperin was political director at ABC News and creator of the insanely popular (among political junkies, anyway) internet site "The Note." Halperin was full of ideas and insights about the presidential race, so you have to go and read the full posts, but here are a few tidbits:

* Fred Thompson is toast. McCain, by contrast, should not be written off yet.

* Clinton's strength as a candidate is that she's learned from both her husband and George W. how to run a campaign.

* If Clinton wins Iowa, she runs the table and wins the Democratic nomination. If Obama wins Iowa -- less likely, but not impossible -- he runs the table and wins the Democratic nomination. John Edwards could win Iowa and still not be the nominee.

* For Republicans this is an extraordinary election because they always seemed to have an annointed frontrunner with establishment support, fundraising, polling, buzz. This year, it's divided: McCain started out with the establishment support. Romney has been the most successful in fundraising. Giuliani is leading in the polls. Fred Thompson has the buzz. It's so divided that it's impossible to know at this point who is going to win.

* What is the country looking for? Change. This is a change election. This favors the Democrats. Of the Republicans, McCain can credibly talk about change.

* A few months ago Obama was on a trajectory to beat Clinton in Iowa and win the nomination. He made mistakes, she didn't. The thing he said about not using nuclear weapons was a rookie mistake. He's not ready to be president. Oprah's endorsement probably hurts more than it helps. He needs to be seen as ready to be president.

Halperin is the author of The Way to Win and the forthcoming Undecided Voter's Guide to the Next President.