Cordray Not Impressed by Bush's Proposal to Assist Mortgage Borrowers at Risk

This morning President Bush outlined a relatively modest proposal to assist some of the mortgage borrowers at risk of losing their homes. (He also urged passage of helpful tax changes proposed by Sens. George Voinovich (R-OH) and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI.) However, Bush minimized the extent of the overall problem, saying that the "recent disturbances" in the subprime mortgage industry are "modest in relation to the size of our economy," and emphasizing that it is "not the federal government's job" to bail out the mortgage lending industry. The Bush administration continues to oppose measures such as new laws to prevent lenders from steering low-income borrowers into riskier loans or raising the investment limits on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so they can buy more mortgages.

Ohio Treasurer Rich Cordray (D-Grove City) was quick to react to the President's proposal. While "somewhat heartened," Cordray is "concerned that action by federal agencies is long overdue and will be far too little":

I have been immersed in the foreclosure problem at the local and state level and I can say with confidence that its effect on the economy is in no way "modest" ...

The U.S. Census Bureau earlier this week ranked the poorest cities in America. The only state with two cities in the top five was Ohio. This is not surprising for a state that has been a national leader in foreclosures for the past decade and experiences at least one foreclosure filing for every 71 households in the state.

The greatest tragedy is when families lose their homes, but the cascade of problems is extensive. Neighborhoods with vacant foreclosed properties decline. Property values sink. Other homeowners cannot afford to sell their homes. Local government services supported by property values suffer greatly as the need for services spikes. There are other less obvious problems: in some Ohio counties, for example, sheriffs must devote up to half of their work week to conducting foreclosure sales. ...

Some authorities - including those at the federal level - may say this is a ripple effect which can be handled. I see that ripple building to an economic and social tsunami: In Ohio, between 150,000 to 200,000 borrowers hold subprime mortgages with so-called ‘exploding ARMS’ which are beginning to reset now and which will continue to reset at large levels.

The president’s plan will help 80,000 homeowners across the nation and I can say with certainty every one of them will need it. But it will not be enough: in 2006 there were 79,072 new foreclosure filings - in Ohio alone.”

Cordray gets it. The foreclosure crisis in Ohio is like nothing seen here since the Great Depression. Strong measures are needed, and soon, or Bush's rosy comments about the strength of the overall economy eventually may be inducted into the same Hall of Shame as President Herbert Hoover's announcement in February 1930 that the preliminary shock of the stock market crash had passed and employment was on the mend.

Sen. Warner (R-VA) Will Retire

It's official. This means that popular former Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA) becomes the likely next senator if he runs, as expected. There are now six Senate races where Democrats stand a very decent chance of picking up seats:

Colorado - Sen. Wayne Allard (R) is retiring; Rep. Mark Udall (D) takes on former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R).

Maine - Sen. Susan Collins (R) looks vulnerable to Rep. Tom Allen (D).

Minnesota - Sen. Norm Coleman (R) is on shaky ground against a wide open field that includes Al Franken (D).

New Hampshire - Sen. John Sununu (R) is in real trouble if former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) gets in.

Oregon - Sen. Gordon Smith (R) has a tough race against Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D).

Virginia - Sen. John Warner (R) is retiring; it will probably be Mark Warner (D) against Rep. Tom Davis (R), former Sen. George Allen (R), or former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R). [UPDATE: Rep Davis has officially declared.]

2nd UPDATE: Stuart Rothenberg now rates Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire as "toss up" races and Maine, Minnesota and Oregon as "narrow advantage to incumbent party." The only Democratic seat in either category is Louisiana, where Rothenberg says that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) has a "narrow advantage." Her probably opponent is state treasurer John Kennedy (R), who just switched parties.

Thompson: Too Little, Too Late?

I agree with Jerid on Buckeye State Blog that former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN), who will be announcing his official campaign with a web video and a whirlwind tour on Thursday, is probably entering the race too late. He is unlikely to mount a successful campaign at this point.

Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) has a huge lead in Iowa and has spent heavily to create a strong organization on the ground. Since his strong showing in the Ames straw poll, former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) has emerged as a "conservative alternative," undercutting Thompson's appeal on that basis. Thompson's fund-raising has been disappointing, so it is unclear how much he can pour into this state. Nevertheless, Thompson must make a very strong showing in Iowa - probably a second place finish - to do well in later contests.

Thompson is skipping the New Hampshire debate next week, and neither his rigid social conservatism nor his southern roots are helpful there. It is also virtually a home court for Romney, who is polling well. So don't look for Thompson to finish strong in the Granite State.

As pointed out today on The Trail, that makes South Carolina and Florida critical contests for Thompson. He has to win one or both convincingly. Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) has been polling well in both states, especially in Florida. Romney will be a strong opponent in South Carolina if he wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire as expected. It's a high hurdle for Thompson, and I don't see Thompson as such a stellar performer as to be expected to pull it off. His testing-the-water phase was hardly error-free, his staff turnover has hindered the creation of a solid foundation, and there are hints that he is not the kind of hard-charging campaigner who can make up a lot of ground quickly. I expect him to be a top tier candidate and to shake up the dynamics of the GOP race, but I do not expect him to become the eventual nominee.

Troop Fatalities Have NOT "Fallen Because Of The Surge"

They keep saying it, but it isn't true. The above graph, courtesy of Kevin Drum based on information from Juan Cole, shows us the reality. YES, U.S. troop deaths have declined from May through August of 2007. They do that each year, because scorching summer temperatures bring activity in general to a halt. But, NO, the number of deaths are not down. Compared to 2006, they are consistently up, month after month. They are higher this August than last August, and were almost as high this August as they were in January, February, and March of this year when the surge was just getting set up. As Dr. Cole puts it:

I mean, how brain dead do the Bushies think we are, peddling this horse manure that US troop deaths have fallen? (There are always seasonal variations because in the summer it is 120 F. in the shade and guerrillas are too heat-exhausted to fight; but the summer 2007 numbers are much greater than those for summer 2006; that isn't progress.) And why does our corporate media keep repeating this Goebbels-like propaganda? Do we really live in an Orwellian state?

When you hear the puppets in the pep parade repeating the lie that U.S. troop deaths have fallen because of the surge, remember this post!

UPDATE: Here is a new graph provided by Kevin Drum, along with additional discussion of the point, which includes data from other years as well:



As anyone can plainly see, U.S. troop fatalities have fluctuated seasonally twice each year, and specifically have declined from spring to late summer each year. Thus, attempts to pass of this year's recent decline as "caused by the surge" are utter nonsense.

Breaking Story - Tony Snow Resigning

Announcement at 12:45 pm. Not unexpected, but another major departure from the Bush administration.

UPDATE: CNN says Snow is leaving September 14th and Deputy Press Secretary Dana Perino will replace him.

2nd UPDATE: It ain't the cancer, it's the dough. Snow says his cancer recovery is going well, but his $168,000 salary (highest level among White House staff) is not sufficient. He made a lot more as a commentator on Fox News and syndicated columnist, etc.

3rd UPDATE: Snow has three children. Can't afford to raise them on $168,000. The White House opposes letting states extend SCHIP Medicaid eligibility to children in families of four with household incomes any higher than $51,625.

Snow says it "was a blast," he had "fun."

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy ... More Subprime Lending Woes

I read a lot of newspapers online, but we still get the Cleveland Plain Dealer and the New York Times in paper form and that's what we read during breakfast. This morning I turned to the business sections in each and was struck once again by the number of stories that relate to one degree or another to the crisis in the subprime mortage lending industry. From the PD:

* Mortgage worries are hurting automakers because "consumers were in no mood to buy a car this month as they faced rising mortgage payments and roiling financial markets, and some analysts already predict 2007 will be the worst year for U.S. auto sales in nearly a decade."

* The Gross Domestic Product grew by a healthy 4% in the second quarter, but economists expect it to slow to around 2% in the present quarter due to the current housing and credit woes arising from the subprime lending fiasco;

* Nobel economics laureate Joseph Stiglitz predicts a "prolonged economic downturn," although probably not a recession, due to the crisis. "Mortgage payments are going up, house prices coming down, incomes are stagnating. It's not a pretty picture. So the dynamics could unravel more and where it stops, we can't be sure," Stiglitz told reporters during a conference in Malaysia.

* Fairview Park-based Colony Mortgage Corp., employer of 88 at nine locations, is closing in September.

Turning to the Times:

* The Bush administration finally will announce several steps to help low-income mortgage borrowers with credit problems. Included is a change that will make borrowers who fall behind due to payment increases incorporated into adjustable rate mortgages eligible for mortgage insurance from the Federal Housing Administration, which may help them obtain refinancing. Previously Bush had insisted that market fundamental are strong and that no intervention is necessary, despite urgent pleas from Democratic leaders.

* The reason that the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has been felt so strongly all around the world is the explosion in the global financial market of new finance vehicles like derivatives and structured products. Structured products are pooled assets that have been sliced into small, specialized pieces. The investments are so complex that international investors failed to appreciate the potential risks involved.

* H & R Block announced yesterday that the sale of its subprime lending unit, Option One Mortgage, might fall apart as credit markets deteriorate.

* The Mortgage Bankers Association, an industry group, has released a study showing that a significant portion of mortgage foreclosures involve investors seeking to turn a quick profit rather than homeowners paying for their primary residence. However, a big majority of foreclosures do in fact involve homeowners. The national average revealed in the study is 16% of defaults among loans based on strong credit relate to investors, while 12% of defaults among loans based on weak credit relate to investors.

That's a lot of news, most of it bad, and it shows how pervasive and troubling the crisis has become. In sum, the experts don't think the crisis will propel the country into another recession, but it is likely to result in at least a sustained economic downturn, with negative effects felt around the world.

News and Notes: Ohio

It's Friday before a holiday in the Buckeye State - what's going on?

Strickland, Brown, and Brunner to Return Donations Related to Hsu - Joining a national wave of Democratic candidates, Gov. Ted Strickland (D), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) are all giving to charity the amounts of contributions received from New-York-based donor Norman Hsu (or in Brown's case individuals connected to him). Hsu is the subject of a 1991 warrant in California arising out of a fraud case, and is suspected of improprieties in bundling contributions purportedly from others.

Death of Two Prominent Ohio Democrats Mourned - Charlie Vanik, an outspoken liberal and 26-year member of Congress from Cleveland, died Wednesday in Florida, and Joe Shump, chairman of the Montgomery County Democratic Party for a quarter-century ending in 1994, died Wednesday at Kettering Memorial Hospital.

Smith Promotes "Second Chance" Bill - State Sen. Shirley Smith (D-Cleveland) held a forum yesterday to promote S.B. 197, her proposal to allow low-level repeat felons who have stayed out of trouble for five years to have their records sealed or expunged in order to help them find employment. Smith's proposal has gained national attention, not all of it favorable. Critics assert that multiple offenders don't deserve another chance, that employers are entitled to know the record of people they hire, and that there may be liability issues if such an employee commits another crime. However, there is broad support for the proposal among inner city residents and from those working in corrections and re-entry. Also supporting the bill is Sen. Jon Peterson (R-Delaware), who said "This bill is about redemption. There is a reason we call is the Department of Rehabilitation and Corrections -- there's a redemptive quality to it, and we should be able to move forward."

Strickland Renews Vow to Reform Ohio Education System - On a visit to Kent State University to discuss Ohio's troubled education system, Gov. Strickland said "I'm owning this problem." He restated his pledge to reform Ohio schools and provide adequate, equitable funding. To date his focus has been higher education rather than elementary and secondary education, including naming former State Sen. Eric Fingerhut to the new position of chancellor of the Ohio Board of Regents, creating The University System of Ohio to foster collaboration and cooperation among public institutions of higher learning, and increasing funding to such institutions while restricting tuition increases.

News and Notes: Ohio

Newsy bits from our fair state:

Strickland Announces Wind Project Grants; Coal Plants Opposed - Mark Niquette reports in The Daily Briefing that today Gov. Ted Strickand (D) followed up yesterday's speech presenting his energy plan by announcing grants worth up to $5 million from the Ohio Wind Production and Manufacturing Incentive Program for two wind energy projects, one in Champaign and Logan Counties and the other in Wood County. Environmentalists are in favor of renewable alternative energy sources like wind and solar, but are deeply skeptical about "clean coal" and coal gasification. ActForChange.com is conducting a campaign that calls on Ohioans to contact Strickland and local lawmakers and urge them to oppose two coal-fired plants planned for Meigs County. However, coal is a huge resource in Ohio and Strickland is from coal country. There is tremendous pressure on Strickland and the legislature to include coal technologies in Ohio's energy plan.

Homeownership Preservation Clinic Underway in Cleveland - The U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development is sponsoring a six-hour clinic today (2:00 pm to 8:00 pm) at the Renaissance Hotel in downtown Cleveland, where borrowers who are having difficulty making their monthly mortgage payments can meet with representatives from fifteen area loan servicers, as well as attend workshops and meet with housing counselors about ways to prevent foreclosure. The clinic is being supported by the Ohio Treasurer, Ohio Department of Commerce, and Ohio Housing Finance Agency, who note that "the number of foreclosures is expected to increase in the next two years as many adjustable rate mortgages with lower 'teaser' rates are reset to higher interest rates and higher monthly payments." If unable to work out terms with their lender, borrowers at risk are encouraged to call the HOPE Hotline at 888-995-HOPE (4673).

Fedor Endorses Union-Backed Fuel Economy Measure - Ohio Senate Minority Leader Teresa Fedor (D-Toledo) today filed a resolution in the Ohio Senate backing passage of a bill in Congress to raise the corporate fuel economy (CAFE) standard from the present 27.5 mpg to 32 mpg by the year 2022. Former Secretary of Transportation Rodney Slater hosted a press conference to praise the measure. However, as pointed out today on The Daily Briefing, environmental groups favor a stronger measure, already passed by the U.S. Senate, that would raise the CAFE standard faster - to 35 mpg by 2020. Fedor (and the United Auto Workers) say the slower measure is needed avoid harming the domestic auto industry, and thus protect jobs. However, a recent analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists concluded that switching to the higher 35 mpg standard by 2018 would "increase US employment by 241,000 jobs in the year 2020, including 23,900 in the auto industry."

Petraeus and Crocker Threaten $9 Gas If U.S. Leaves Iraq

Unbelievable. The latest scare tactic for prolonging the war in Iraq is gasoline at $9 per gallon, a consequence of U.S. withdrawal suggested to Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV) by Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker during a recent visit to Baghdad. So call your legislator to support the surge, or you might not be able to take your SUV on that vacation trip you've been planning.

Ohio Carnival of Politics #80

The Carnival of Ohio Politics has hit the 80's, and Pho celebrates the occasion with a rousing tribute to "the Me decade," replete with hilarious cultural references and a decade's worth of links to quality blog posts.

Go read and enjoy!

Rate Finalists in the DSCC Bumper Sticker Competition

Here are the four contenders, submitted by rank and file Democrats in the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee-sponsored competition to come up with a nationwide DSCC slogan for 2008. What do you think?


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Vote for your favorite here. Then come back and tell me what you think in the comments.

Here are some initial thoughts:

1) Why so much red? The red/blue symbolism has prevaded popular culture pretty strongly. All else being equal, shouldn't the Democrats use blue as part of the Democratic brand?

2) All the slogans are grounded in reacting to the mess created by Republican rule. Given the dismal approval ratings for Bush that makes a certain amount of sense, but wouldn't it be better to convey a positive message as well?

3) Is it possible to distill the Democratic jobs-health care domestic agenda to a slogan?

4) No graphics! Where's the donkey?

5) Why just one slogan?

Tell me what you think.

UPDATE: Hey, how about adopting this comment by the arresting officer in the Sen. Larry Craig (R) airport bathroom incident as a slogan?

"Embarrassing. Embarrassing. No wonder we're going down the tubes."

Okay, just kidding.

Strickland's Energy Plan

Faced with a utility deregulation policy that has failed to produce lower rates, and threatens to cause much higher rates if things go as they have in several other states, Gov. Ted Strickland unveiled a hybrid energy plan yesterday in a speech at the Ohio Statehouse. The governor's office is working with the Legislative Service Commission to put his plan into a bill, with hopes of getting some version of it passed by the end of the year.

Interestingly, some of the pressure to go back to complete regulation of utility rates is coming from business interests, faced with the frightening prospect of skyrocketing electricity prices. However, Strickland's plan does not do that. Instead, as reported in the Dispatch, utilities are given "the choice of returning to a regulated environment by having the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio approve their rates or opting for market pricing -- but only if they can prove to the PUCO that a competitive market exists."

However, the plan doesn't stop there. Strickland also calls for requiring that one quarter of the energy sold in Ohio by 2025 come from 'advanced energy technologies,' which would include fuel cells, so-called "clean coal," and nuclear power as well as renewables like wind, solar, low-impact hydroelectric, and geothermal power. As noted in the Toledo Blade story, at least half of the alternative energy would have to come from renewables. Also, half of the total alternative energy would have to be generated within Ohio, in order to boost the Ohio economy.

The plan lacks detail at this stage, and the general reaction from all sides has been "let's wait and see." However, there are some elements that set off alarm bells even at this stage. The alternative energy sources advanced by the plan include nuclear power and coal gasification, and both of those alternatives raise serious environmental concerns. The target of 25% alternative energy may seem impressive now, but given the trend to green energy it may actually be behind the curve by the year 2025. However, the general direction of the plan is encouraging, and there does appear to be potential for broad support for the plan.

UPDATE: Todd Hoffman has video from Strickland's speech on the Ohio Democratic Party Blog.

Craig Cratering

Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID), who is NOT GAY and NEVER HAS BEEN GAY, is disappearing into political quicksand. Facing a difficult reelection battle, and possibly offended at the misuse of a Minnesota public bathroom, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) has followed up his call for Craig's resignation with an announcement that he will return a contribution from Craig's political action committee, Alliance for the West PAC. Will fellow recipients Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Pete Domenici (R-NM) and John Sununu (R-NH) follow suit?

Meanwhile, Craig has been stripped of his committee assignments, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and a variety of GOP House members have joined the call for his resignation, the White House says it is "disappointed," and the matter has been referred to the Senate ethics panel.

Dan Abrams pointed out on MSNBC last night that ten out of fifteen recent major political sexual scandals have involved Republicans rather than Democrats. Why the disparity? The most interesting suggestion made by his guests was that persons with information about sexual improprieties are more likely to come forward when the subject is a perceived as a hypocrite, for example by demagoguing about family values while having an extramarital affair or denouncing gays while secretly engaging in gay sex.

Incidentally, have you been wondering why the GOP is being so noisy about the Craig incident while it has been so silent about the D.C. Madam scandal involving Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)? It could be because one incident involved straight sex while the other involves gay sex. However, Kevin Drum points out that Craig's replacement would be nominated by a Republican governor, while Vitter's successor would be nominated by a Democrat.

News and Notes: The National Scene

The political pulse of the nation (ba-bump, ba-bump, ba-bump):

GAO to Report Failure by Iraqi Government - The AP says that a General Accounting Office report ordered by Congress will conclude that the Iraqi government has failed to achieve 15 out of 18 political and security goals laid out by lawmakers to assess Bush's new war strategy. The Bush administration will argue that it was unfair of Congress to instruct the GAO to count only full completion of each benchmark as "success."

Clinton to Give Up Contributions From Donor Wanted for Fraud - Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) will give to charity $23,000 received from businessman Norman Hsu, subject of an arrest warrant in California stemming from a 1991 fraud case. Hsu had been scheduled to co-host a Clinton gala next month featuring Quincy Jones.

Conservative Media Watchdog Group Complains About Network News Coverage - Unbelievable. A right wing group is complaining that Democratic candidates get more airtime on network morning news shows than Republicans. The networks say Republicans are less interested in appearing on their shows. Why should they? They're too busy being fawned over on Fox News Channel and conservative talks shows across the radio dial. If we're going to consider whether the amount of airtime is fair, let's take all of that into account, please.

Wyoming GOP Moves Caucus Up to January 5th - Now that's a move that seems certain to shove Iowa and New Hampshire's presidential nominating contests into December.

Edwards: No More War Funding; Plight of Uninsured "Outrageous"

Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) jumped on the news that Bush will seek an additional $50 billion in Iraq war funding in September, calling on Congress to refuse:

"The Congress will be coming back next week and I think the American people have had enough excuses," Edwards said in a speech at Georgia Southwestern State University.

"And what the Congress should do when they come back next week is make it absolutely clear: no timetable, no funding. And there should be no further excuses. Congress needs to stand their ground."

I like hearing that from Edwards, but I also really like seeing this moving video clip of John and Elizabeth Edwards responding to a question from a casualty of our flawed health care system at a campaign appearance in New Hampshire:



The right wing noise machine, more afraid of Edwards than of Clinton or Obama, has been very carefully perpetuating the myth that Edwards and his spouse, who are wealthy, are "hypocritical" and out of touch with the problems of lower-income Americans. They are indeed rich, but they get it. They not only empathize with and understand the plight of the impoverished and the struggling middle class, they are appropriately outraged by the health care mess. It shows.

News and Notes: Ohio

Posting delayed four hours by service interuption at web host:

Caught my eye:

Jean Schmidt Gets Testy With War Protesters - A shouting match broke out between and Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) and "Take a Stand Day" war protestors outside her office. Schmidt was backed by pro-war counter-protestors. The groups reportedly shouted at each other while passersby honked their horns and yelled.

Franklin County GOP Endorsements - The Columbus Dispatch blog Daily Briefing reports on endorsements by the county GOP in Ohio House races: Cheryl Grossman over Brett Sciotto in the suburban 23rd, county coroner Bradley Lewis over Nathan Burd in the 19th, Tim Rankin in the 24th, and Bill Schuck in the 22nd.

LaTourette Moves Closer to Challenger - This is ... odd. Rep. Steve LaTourette (R) has relocated from rental property in Concord Township (Lake County) to a $218,900 home in Bainbridge Township (Geauga County). That move puts him very close to challenger William O'Neill (D), who lives in adjoining South Russell. Keeping an eye on the competition?

Strickland to Unveil Energy Plan Today - Gov. Ted Strickland (D-Lisbon) is about to announce his new energy plan, formulated after months of consultations on replacing Ohio's disappointing deregulation policy. He is expected to call for investor-owned utilities and a statewide strategy for using more renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and biofuel.

News and Notes: The National Scene

Posting delayed four hours by service interruption at web host:

Items of interest from outside Ohio:

Bush To Add New $50 Billion Request For Iraq - From the Washington Post:

President Bush plans to ask Congress next month for up to $50 billion in additional funding for the war in Iraq, a White House official said yesterday, a move that appears to reflect increasing administration confidence that it can fend off congressional calls for a rapid drawdown of U.S. forces.

This is on top of an already pending $147 billion supplemental. Bush figures that Democrats will fold after Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker deliver their pep talk in Congress on September 11. Is he right - to the tune of another $50 billion wasted on this insanity?

Americans Doubt New Orleans Recovery - A new CNN-Opinion Research Poll indicates that a majority of Americans (55%) don't think New Orleans will ever completely recover from Hurricane Katrina. A slimmer majority (52%) think the federal government is not doing enough to assist with the recovery; only 10% think it is doing too much.

Elizabeth Edwards Says Democrats Don't Try Hard Enough to Win in the South - Speaking to supporters a fund-raiser in a Nashville restaurant, the spouse of candidate John Edwards (D-NC) said she doubts that rivals Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Barack Obama (D-IL) will spend much time in the South, and she blasted the Democratic party for ignoring southern states in past campaigns:

Edwards said Democratic values parallel more closely with Southern values than those of the Republican Party, because of emphasis on family and small community issues, such as child care credits and universal health insurance.

But the Democratic Party isn't bothering to spend the money needed to connect to Southern voters, Edwards said, which she said showed it had written off the region.

Edwards said a Democrat is electable in the region where there are five states with Democratic governors — Arkansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.

Obviously Something on His Mind? - The first words out of the mouth of Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) at his news conference yesterday, held to deny that he is gay and to proclaim his innocence despite pleading guilty to a misdemeanor charge of creating a public nuisance disorderly conduct at an airport bathroom in Minneapolis by engaging in suggestive behavior toward an undercover police officer, were:

"Thank you all for coming out today."

By the way, 55% of Idahoans think he should resign.

Helmsley Left Millions to Dog, Nothing to Two Grandchildren - Yikes. The will of deceased hotel billionairess Leona Helmsley creates a $12 million trust fund for beloved white Maltese, named Trouble, but leaves nothing for two out of four grandchildren "for reasons known to them."

The Great Flood of 2007

As Kyle points out in an email this morning, it's not on the scale of Hurricane Katrina (the anniversary of which we mark today), but the flooding across north central and northwest Ohio has spread devastation and suffering through at least eight counties.

Local chapters of the Ohio Red Cross have opened shelters for hundreds of people who evacuated their flooded homes. Over 700 Red Cross disaster workers are serving hot meals and snacks, as well as distributing clean up supplies and comfort kits to affected residents.

Please click this link and make a generous donation to help make sure that the recovery in Ohio (unlike that in New Orleans and the Mississippi coast) is swift - and then email the link to your friends:

http://american.redcross.org/site/PageServer?pagename=ntld_mnwiok&s_src=S7HWE003

More on SCHIP

Following up on my posts earlier today on SCHIP and depressing economic statistics, I see that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has posted an item on her blog, The Gavel, pointing out that the U.S. Census Report released today illustrates why Congress needs to pass legislation strengthening SCHIP:

The report shows that for the second year in a row, the number of uninsured children increased, leaving a total of 8.7 million children without health care coverage. That is unacceptable.

Democrats urge the President to end his veto threats and join the vast majority of Americans in supporting our efforts to ensure that all eligible children have the health insurance they deserve.

On a related point, you may be wondering how the public in general feels about expanding SCHIP. Jason Sanford at the excellent blog Ohio Health Policy Review has the data:

The 2007 Ohio Health Issues Poll asked Ohioans if they favored expanding SCHIP (or Healthy Start, as the program is known in Ohio) to include all uninsured children in the state. 86% of Ohioans said they would favor the expansion. The poll was completed as part of the Ohio Poll and complete results and methodology are available in a PDF download from the Health Foundation's website. These results mirror a new poll on the same issue from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

So, public support for expanding SCHIP is very strong.

It's a Banner Day for Depressing Statistics!

Quick - what do housing prices, SAT scores, earnings, and the percentage of Americans with health insurance all have in common?

Aaaaaugh - they are all dropping! In a perfect storm of really depressing statistical measures, we learn today that:

* United States home prices fell 3.2% in the second quarter, the steepest decline since Standard & Poor's began keeping track in 1987. "The decline in home prices around the nation shows no evidence of a market recovery anytime soon," states the report at CNN.

* Combined math and reading SAT scores for the high school class of 2007 were the lowest in eight years.

* Median earnings for individuals are down, according to the U.S. Census Bureau report issued today. "For men, earnings slipped 1.1 percent to a median of $42,300, while for women, earnings sank 1.2 percent to a median of $32,500." Now, this statistic is tricky, because median income of households actually went up slightly (0.7 percent to $48,200, adjusted for inflation). But that's because more people are working within each household.

* The U.S. Census Bureau also reports that the number of Americans not covered by health insurance rose to 47 million (15.8% of the population) in 2006 from 44.8 million (15.3%) the year before. The percentage of people covered through their employers fell from 60.2% to 59.7%, and the percentage covered by government health programs fell from 27.3% to 27%.

OH-10: "Cleveland in Poverty, Dennis in Disney World"

Seizing on today's news that the U.S. Census Bureau has again ranked Cleveland as one of the poorest cities in the nation, and the fact that Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland) has scheduled a presidential campaign appearance at Disney World in Orlando, Florida, the campaign of challenger Rosemary Palmer (D-Cleveland) has released this deadly bit of video:

Spitzer Threatens S-CHIP Lawsuit; Can Dann Be Far Behind?

During his campaign for attorney general, Marc Dann (D-Liberty Township) sometimes mentioned crusading state attorney general (and now governor) Eliot Spitzer (D-NY) as a personal inspiration. Yesterday, Spitzer threatened to sue the federal government over new regulatory restrictions on the S-CHIP program, which provides Medicaid coverage to children of lower-income working families). The lawsuit would contend that the regulatory changes are void as fatally inconsistent with the controlling statute.

I have written about the new S-CHIP regulations here. The regulatory changes, issued by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) on August 17th, impose virtually impossible preconditions on states that wish to raise the income limitation on families eligible for S-CHIP above 250% of the federal poverty level. The recently passed Ohio budget contains a plan to raise the eligibility to 300%. Other states are considering plans to raise the limit to 350% or even 400%.

Reaction to the changes has been swift and harsh. Gene Sperling wrote in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

What is most inexcusable about the White House stance is what they don't say. They offer nothing -- no better idea, no alternative, no plan -- that has been shown to keep even a chunk of these 5 million to 6 million children from going to sleep every night without health insurance.

They are content to keep the status quo even with heartbreaking reports that uninsured infants with congenital heart problems are 10 times more likely to die because of delayed treatment than those with coverage.

Before, "compassionate conservatism" may have seemed like a political bumper sticker. Now it seems like the punch line of a sad joke, at the expense of millions of impoverished children.

Amy Swanson, Executive Director of Voices for Ohio's Children, wrote to me in an e-mail message last week:

[The CMS letter is] yet another example in the SCHIP debate that the White House is out of touch with America. Ohio passed a bipartisan child health expansion, and these decisions should be left to states and not to the whims of partisan politics in Washington. ...

The requirements create nearly impossible hurdles for states to overcome. ...

With passage of recent legislation [i.e., the SCHIP extension bills passed by both chambers of Congress], it is clear that Congress does not agree with the administration’s policies for SCHIP. ...

This policy restricts state flexibility – a cornerstone of the program – sets a bad precedent – what else with the administration due to undermine the current program for our children—many of these children we are talking about have lost access to employer coverage because of chronic care needs or worse, they never had access to the employer coverage. Middle-income families are being priced out of the private market due to escalating health care costs.

Last week, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) joined in a strong protest letter to the Bush Administration, which includes the assertion that the changes "contravene the fundamental objectives underlying SCHIP and may overstep your Department's authority." That wording suggests that Ohio's new leadership concurs with Spitzer's assessment about the validity of the changes. Something tells me that Marc Dann might be working on draft pleadings for Ohio's SCHIP lawsuit at this very moment.

Chertoff Credibility Issues

It now appears that the positioning of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff as a nominee to replace Attorney General Alberto Gonzales was a mere feint or ploy, but if Chertoff does become the nominee he will face stiff challenges to his credility. Mark Benjamin writes in Salon today that Chertoff mischaracterized Pentagon interrogation methods in testimony before Congress:

Just as Gonzales, under oath before Congress, failed to recall whether there was dissension within the Bush administration over a controversial war-on-terror-related policy, so Michael Chertoff seems to have suffered a similar lapse of memory while under oath before Congress when pressed on a different terror-related policy. Gonzales pleaded ignorance of a rift within the administration over warrantless wiretapping; Chertoff has denied knowledge of interrogation techniques that are tantamount to torture, despite regular attendance by his top aides at meetings on the subject.

"If Mr. Chertoff is nominated, the Senate needs to ask him some very tough questions about what he knew about the abuses at Guantánamo," said Hina Shamsi from Human Rights First.

In a similar vein, David Fiderer on Huffington Post details false statements by Chertoff in Congressional testimony about Katrina, including referring four times to non-existent newspaper headlines that said 'New Orleans Dodged the Bullet.'

Although Gonzales has been roundly criticized for a variety of failings, the flaw that weighed most heavily in eventually sinking him was his inability to speak plainly and truthfully to Congress. With that backdrop, these credibility issues would almost certainly doom a Chertoff nomination.

DeWine (R) a Potential Nominee for Attorney General?

Okay, this is the second time I've heard the name of the recently defeated Ohio senator, Mike DeWine (R-Cedarville), mentioned as a possible nominee to replace Alberto Gonzales as U.S. Attorney General. I can't remember where I saw it the first time (and Googling didn't turn it up).

My instinct is to want to call DeWine for a reaction, but I'm having some trouble coming up with a number to call. Working on it. Will update.

Presumably, the minimum qualifications (at least for a consensus-type candidate) are someone with notable public stature, great skills as an administrator, independence from the White House, and a proven commitment to putting the interests of nation ahead of party politics.

UPDATE: Mike DeWine replied by email that he has no comment.

2nd UPDATE - I am told, by a person very familiar with the nomination process for federal judges, that when a putative nominee says "No comment" -- rather than, for example, "Are you out of your mind? No way!" -- it usually means that the person is in fact under consideration.

3rd UPDATE: See? What did I tell you! U.S. News & World Report also mentions DeWine as a possible nominee, citing a Fox News report.

Reid and Pelosi: Resignation Does Not End AG Inquiry

Both Democratic Congressional leaders, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), have emphatically stated that today's announcement of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales' resignation effective September 17th will not end the Congressional inquiry into the Department of Justice, including the matter of the firing of nine United States Attorneys last year. "This resignation is not the end of the story," said Reid. "Congress must get to the bottom of this mess and follow the facts where they lead, into the White House." Referring to the nominee to succeed Gonazles, Pelosi said he or she "must also pledge to cooperate with ongoing congressional oversight into the conduct of the White House in the politicization of federal law enforcement." Other key Democrats are chiming in as well.

There is talk that the removal of Rumsfeld, Rove, and Gonzales from the Bush administration takes away the high-value targets for Congressional wrath (save Bush and Cheney themselves). But those people can still be subpoenaed to testify, and there is even precedent for impeaching a cabinet member after he resigns. In any event, the Congressional inquiries are clearly unfinished business.

Compare How Ohio's Senators React to Gonzales Resignation

Very instructive. From senior Senator George Voinovich (R), who sometimes deviates from the White House in word but rarely in deed:

“While the senator believes Congress has a duty to conduct oversight, he also understands the president has the right and responsibility to fill his own cabinet. He is looking forward to reviewing the future nominee and will work with his colleagues to help ensure a thorough but speedy process.”

From newcomer Sherrod Brown (D), who won his campaign largely by tying incumbent Mike DeWine (R) to Bush:

“Senator Brown believes the attorney general's resignation is long overdue. His tenure has been marred by incompetence at best and outright deceit at worst. Senator Brown hopes President Bush will put politics aside and nominate someone we can all be proud of for this important position. The American people deserve an attorney general whose first allegiance is to them, not the President.”

Both statements were issued through spokespersons.

By conspicuously not praising Gonzales in the statement, Voinovich hints at some level of disapproval of Gonzales' incompetence and partisanship. So much for preserving some minimal appearance of being a moderate. However, the substance of what he does say is that he is already an automatic "yes" vote for whoever Bush puts forward.

OH-15: Neither Petro Nor Lashutka Will Run

It's a nightmare scenario playing out for the Ohio GOP as the top two remaining prospects to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Upper Arlington) -- former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro (R-Columbus) and former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka (R-Columbus) -- have now both rejected the idea of jumping into the race. Two other possibilities, State Sen. Steve Stivers (R-Columbus) and State Rep. Jim Hughes (R-Clintonville), previously turned it down.

Former Franklin County Commissioner Dewey Stokes (R-Columbus) has also been mentioned. He was defeated in his re-election bid by Marilyn Brown (D-Columbus) in 2006. However, Stokes has said that he is more likely to run for county commissioner again than for Congress.

More on Bush's Iraq-Vietnam Comparison

I commented before on Bush's analogy of Iraq to Vietnam in a speech before the VFW last week, asserting that:

[O]ne unmistakable legacy of Vietnam is that the price of America’s withdrawal was paid by millions of innocent citizens whose agonies would add to our vocabulary new terms like ‘boat people,’ ‘re-education camps,’ and ‘killing fields.’

The best reactions I think I've seen came not from professional pundits but from seven pithy letters to the editors of the New York Times, published on Saturday, which essentially noted that:

1. Iraq has added painful vocabulary terms of its own, like "Abu Ghraib" and "I.E.D."

2. It's hypocritical to evoke Vietnam now, after warnings of a Vietnam-like quagmire were ignored before going to war in Iraq.

3. Bush's declaration that a free Iraq "is within reach" is "not that much removed from Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s 'Peace is at hand' remark, and we know how many more lives were lost needlessly after that statement."

4. The appropriate comparison is not to the aftermath of Vietnam but "the flawed policies that led us to these battles in the first place."

5. Bush's "deeply flawed thinking invites the question: Why didn’t [Bush] step up and go?"

6. Bush's "contorted and inaccurate" analogy invites the critical question of "how long we Americans will accept this level of dishonesty from our president."

7. Perhaps Bush will recall that "after we left Vietnam, none of the predicted dominoes fell and Vietnam became a tourist destination welcoming Americans."

Of course, implicit in Bush's analogy to Vietnam is the notion that the United States could have "won" that conflict if only it had stayed the course. This is a blatant revision of history that originated during the Reagan era and is perpetuated by some right wing pundits, despite the consensus of expert opinion to the contrary. For an authoritative example, read a paper written by Dr. Jeffrey Record, a professor in the Department of Strategy and International Security at the U.S. Air Force’s Air War College in Montgomery, Alabama, entitled "Vietnam in Retrospect: Could We Have Won?" His conclusion:

The United States could not have prevented the forcible reunification of Vietnam under communist auspices at a morally, materially, and strategically acceptable price.

AG Gonzales Resigns; Chertoff Likely Replacement

Alberto Gonzales is resigning. This is a breaking story; details to follow.

UPDATE: Still nothing much to add. The New York Times broke the story, but reports only that Gonzales a senior administration official will make a statement later today.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Edwards has issued a statement pointing out that he called for Gonzales' resignation on March 13, 2007, and saying "Better late than never."

2nd UPDATE: CNN is reporting that Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff will be nominated to replace Gonzales. Chertoff has background as Assistant U.S. Attorney, Assistant Attorney General, and U.S. Court of Appeals judge. He also clerked for Supreme Court justice William Brennan.

3rd UPDATE: The news conference is set for 10:30 a.m. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who led the charge against Gonzales, seemed sort of noncommittal about Chertoff on CNN just now, neither praising nor condemning him outright.

4th UPDATE: Solicitor General Paul Clement is being named as a likely temporary replacement. Other names I've heard for a permanent replacement are former Sen. John Danforth, former Solicitor General Ted Olsen, and corporate attorney and former Deputy Attorney General Larry Thompson.

Chertoff has competency issues because of the bungling of Hurricane Katrina during his watch (FEMA is part of Homeland Security). I don't think that would be enough to prevent his confirmation outright, but if the Bush administration wants a really quick and smooth confirmation process and Democratic senators object to Chertoff on this basis, it might prompt the White House to name someone else.

5th UPDATE: Although the traditional media has jumped on Chertoff as the virtually certain nominee, I'm not so sure just yet. One thing I will say is that this is an interesting test as to how Bush will handle the last part of his presidency. If he nominates Chertoff or anyone else closely associated with his administration, it's a sign that he will continue his combative style even as a lame duck. If he goes beyond his inner circle and nominates someone who was prominent before Bush took office, like Ted Olsen, that's a sign that he will be more cooperative with moderate elements within his own party and with Congress in general.

The GOP presidential candidates presumably don't want the White House to pick fights and create controversies, and generally draw attention to the unpopular current GOP president, during the next year while they are trying to sell themselves to the public as representing a new direction for the country. However, stubbornness and devotion to ideology have been the hallmarks of this administration, so it would represent a huge change of tone for the White House to seek a consensus nomination for AG. We'll just have to wait and see.

6th UPDATE: Cleverest reaction to Gonzale's resignation yet, from Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emmanuel (D-IL):

Alberto Gonzales is the first Attorney General who thought the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth were three different things.

7th UPDATE: Bear in mind that the U.S. attorney general firings were only the tip of the iceberg. Andrew Cohen lays it out on the Washington Post blog "Bench Conference":

And all the while, Gonzales' Justice Department was crumbling from within, devastated by a cynical strategy of minimizing the role of career nonpartisan professionals within the Department in favor of young ideologues, mediocre attorneys and just plain party hacks. The U.S. Attorney scandal is just the most publicized example of this daring effort to make the Justice Department a house organ for the Bush administration. Less visible career attorneys were pushed out at the expense of rank partisans willing to toe the company line. Even the internship programs for law students were schooled to favor "right" thinking attorneys at the expense of others. One law school, founded by Pat Robertson and rated among the worst in the nation, became a feeder school for the Department. And it was all part of a plan.

Add Skindell, Celeste and Hagan to List of Potential Dem House Leaders?

If the Democratic Party wins four seats and therefore control of the Ohio House of Representatives, their caucus leader will be House Speaker rather than just Minority Leader. Their current leader, State Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus), is term limited in 2008. So, the hunt for a new leader is on.

I reported previously that the Toledo Blade had suggested State Reps. Todd Book (D-Portsmouth), Jennifer Garrison (D-Marietta), and Matt Szollosi (D-Toledo) as possible choices. Today, Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter Mark Naymik identifies three more possibilities: State Reps. Mike Skindell (D-Lakewood), Ted Celeste (D-Grandview Heights), and Bob Hagan (D-Youngstown).

Skindell is an interesting prospect. He is in his third term and is the ranking minority member on the powerful Finance and Appropriations Committee. I heard him speak at a forum on the state budget and his grasp of substantive issues is impressive. However, the other two newly mentioned contenders have powerful political credentials. Celeste, in his first term after whipping incumbent Geoff Smith (R-Upper Arlington) last fall, is the brother of the former governor and ambassador Richard Celeste. He was a campaign manager for his brother and ran for U.S. Senate himself in 2000. Celeste has bolstered his position with solid fund-raising since taking office. And Hagan was a state senator (and minority whip) before running for his current seat in the House due to term limits. Hagan's father was a county commissioner and primary candidate for Lieutenant Governor, and his brother is a commissioner for Cuyahoga County.

Duelling Videos on Iraq

A group calling themselves Freedoms Watch, composed of prominent Bush supporters, is running ads in the districts of vulnerable GOP Senators and Representatives, urging the public to call the group's switchboard and tell their legislators to "vote against surrender." The ads are powerful, with Iraq vets and family members of the fallen passionately defending the war, including a woman who lost both an uncle in 9/11 and a spouse in Iraq :



However, what happens if you call that number to OPPOSE the war? Nothing doing, as demonstrated in this counter-video by Americans United for Change: