Countdown to the Democratic National Convention
Submitted by Jeff on Wed, 08/20/2008 - 9:09am.
I am flying to Denver on Saturday and will stay through Friday. Over the next few days I will not be posting much here while I prepare for the trip and for blogging the festivities. Here are a few notes about what is going on about the convention this morning:
Jimmy Carter to Speak - The former president, who has been in the headlines most recently for criticizing Israeli policy in his controversial book "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid," has been added to the Monday night lineup, when the theme is "One Nation." The headline speaker that night is Michelle Obama, who will introduce America to Obama's compelling life story.
How Many Votes for Clinton? - Massachusetts House Speaker Salvatore DiMasi (D), a strong Clinton supporter, confirmed yesterday that he will cast his vote for Hillary Clinton. However, Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), who was a national co-chair for Clinton, says she will vote for Obama. Another Clinton supporter, Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA), has predicted that as many as half of Clinton's approximately 1,800 pledged delegates will vote for her. Clinton herself is expected to vote for Obama.
Vice President a "He"? - At a town hall in North Carolina yesterday, Barack Obama repeatedly referred to his prospective vice president as "he." That suggests that he won't be picking Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) or Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) ... or Hillary Clnton.
Race Tightens as Convention Nears - Following yesterday's LA Times/Bloomberg poll that shows the race within the margin of error, a Reuters/Zogby poll out today shows McCain ahead of Obama 46% to 41%. However, a Quinnipiac national poll released yesterday shows Obama ahead by 47% to 42%. Although one should not pay to much attention to polls at this point, it is clear that Obama needs to get a substantial bounce from the convention, and I expect that he will in fact get one.
Unity Breakfast on Thursday - I'm very interested in this event, details of which are still sktechy: Martin Luther King III, Rev. Al Sharpton, Rabbi Jack Moline, Sister Simone Campbell and other leaders will be featured at a unity breakfast on August 28th, which is the 45th anniversary of Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr's "I Have A Dream" speech in Washington DC, as well as the day that Barack Obama will become the first African-American presidential nominee of a major political party. I hope that I can get in.
National polls
In reality, national "beauty contest" polls mean NOTHING. The only thing that matters are state by state polls and how the electoral college numbers add up.
But... national polls tend to influence "low data" voters by showing "momentum."
Also, the Wilder or Bradley effect is (sad to say) going to be VERY significant, especially here in Ohio. Low income white male voters will "fib" to pollsters and even exit polls. The question is, will they skip voting for president or will they (gag) vote for McSame? If these national polls show a dead heat, this effect will get worse. If polls show Obama ahead by say 5 per cent or more, it will be diminished.
Zogby is WORTHLESS.
Links for convention
This looks like it could be one FUN convention. There's a great set of links for it on http://www.USAMediaGuide.com. It includes links to the official convention site, the host committee's site, the "protest" site, places to watch it live online and other convention-related sites.