Do-Overs Looking More Likely in Michigan and Florida UPDATED

Submitted by Jeff on Fri, 03/07/2008 - 10:31am.

Gov. Strickland has joined ODP Chair Chris Redfern in calling for a re-do of the flawed nominating contests in Michigan and Ohio. An editorial in today's Chicago Sun-Times calls for do-overs. Obama says he'll leave it up to the DNC, although he'd much rather see delegations from the two states participate in the convention in some fashion than not.

Meanwhile, a DNC source leaked to The New Republic yesterday that Michigan has already decided to comply, holding a less-expensive caucus rather than a primary.

It's interesting that Clinton-backer Strickland is calling for do-overs instead of sitting delegates chosen in the earlier contests, which would presumably be the best outcome for her, although it would engender huge protests and aggravate tensions within the party. This is consistent with blogger Nedra Pickler's report that top officials in Clinton's campaign are coming around to supporting do-overs instead of continuing to insist that the current outlawed delegates be seated.

Who would win the do-overs? It's hard to say. Clinton polled 20 points ahead of Obama in Florida at the time of the primary, but Obama didn't campaign in that state. Clinton won the primary by 16.7 points. I'm not finding polls from Michigan that include both Clinton and Obama, since Obama wasn't on the ballot. A recent SUSA poll found that Obama outperforms Clinton against McCain there, and if it is a caucus then it should be noted that Obama has done better in caucuses than Clinton. I'd guess that Clinton is likely to come out somewhat ahead after do-overs, compared to not seating the two delegations.

UPDATE: Rasmussen steps into the breach, providing polls of Florida and Michigan: