Obama, Clinton, and OT Tuesday

The one-time front-runner is dismissive of recent setbacks and campaign staff turmoil and claims to be looking ahead to an upcoming major primary for a momentum swing. It sounds like I'm talking about Rudy Giuliani looking ahead to Florida, but instead it's Hillary Clinton counting on OT Tuesday as a firewall against the Obama onslaught.

(I heard someone on cable talking about the March 4th primary as "Junior Tuesday," and clearly we need to stop that nonsense. There's nothing "junior" about the last two heavyweight primaries possibly deciding the contest. I'm calling it OT Tuesday, for Ohio-Texas but also for Overtime. The nomination wasn't decided on Super Tuesday, so now it's sudden death in an extended contest.)

Over the weekend, Obama won all four nominating contests and even won a Grammy ("Best Spoken Album" for his autobiographical "The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream" in the form of a book recording). Hillary Clinton switched campaign managers from one long-time aide to another, and Bill Clinton lost his Grammy bid (audio version of "Giving: How Each of Us Can Change the World"). Obama is favored in the Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. nominating contests tomorrow. It's pretty obvious which way the wind is blowing.

I just got back from spending time with family in Wisconsin. One of my brothers is a registered Republican in California, but he says he thought about voting for Barack Obama in the California primary and may actually do so in November. (His high school senior daughter is an enthusiastic Obama fan, as are my other nieces.) It's nothing about Obama's policies that appeals to my brother, it's his message of hope, optimism, and most of all change. My brother is deeply embarrassed that he voted for George W. Bush and he's ready to support a candidate who promises to take the country in a new direction and into a new era.

My family all wanted to know how I thought Ohio would go. My wife and I have heard that question from friends around the country as well. (OT Tuesday is huge on the national radar screen.) I tell everyone that Clinton has a lot of institutional advantages in Ohio (including strong support from a popular governor and the only African-American member of Congress in the state), but I see signs everywhere that the trend is toward Obama (with Sunday's endorsement by the Plain Dealer a significant indicator). There is enough time between now and March 4th for Obama to score the upset.

I watched Obama give his speech in Virginia on Saturday night and once again I was extremely impressed. His ability to inspire is not a fluke, not a campaign gimmick. The best part of this particular speech was when he stopped looking at his notes and expounded on his campaign theme of hope. He said that he wouldn't be where he is without hope. Responding to criticism that hope reflects gullibility or inexperience, Obama explained that he was raised by his mother and grandparents after his father left him at the age of two, and all that they had to offer him was love, a good education, and hope. He cited famous examples of other people whose hope helped them overcome long odds and achieve important social change. It was a powerful and inspiring passage, and it was delivered straight from the heart.

A friend recently argued that the Obama campaign at this point is a "classic bubble," a mere wave of enthusiasm that will quickly fade when the nation focuses on his relative lack of experience. Indeed, when he began this campaign Obama seemed an improbable candidate, with only a few years in the U.S. Senate and a few terms as a state legislator on his political resume. But when a nation longs for change and a new direction, the improbable perhaps becomes inevitable. Who is more likely to win the general election against a person who has been in Washington since 1982, the one who argues experience or the one who promises change? Obama's newness to Washington may be one of his biggest assets.

I have a lot of respect for Hillary Clinton. I think she is extremely smart and a highly skilled politician. I like her plans and proposals and she'd make a fine president. I'll support her whole-heartedly if she is the nominee. But time and again it's Obama who demonstrates the greater potential to inspire, energize, and unite a dispirited nation. When it comes right down to it, it isn't really a difficult decision for me. I was an Edwards supporter, but on March 4th I plan to vote for Barack Obama.