Obama Makes His Move

The once indomitable campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) slipped a bit when she performed poorly in a debate on October 30th, and then again when it was revealed that questions were planted at an Iowa campaign event. Then Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) seemed to rise to the occasion by soaring to oratorical heights at the pivotal Jefferson Jackson Dinner in Iowa on November 10th. It seems that if anyone is going to challenge Clinton at any time, Obama is the guy and now is the time.

I had a brief e-chat with Eric of Plunderbund about it this afternoon. He commented that Obama is "making waves" and pointed out that it was a bonus that Obama got to go last at the Iowa event.

Then, after our chat, I received my SECOND email from the Obama camp since the Iowa speech, titled "The Fierce Urgency of Now," this time over the signature of Michelle Obama herself. Both emails highlighted the speech and urged me to help raise $850,000 online this week. I went and watched an excerpted version of the speech here, and yes, indeed, it was very good. ("When I am this party's nominee, my opponent will not be able to say that I voted for the war in Iraq, or that I gave George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran, or that I support Bush/Cheney policies on not talking to leaders that we don't like ...") Will we all look back on that speech as the turning point?

It looks like the Obama campaign is going all out to seize the moment. Mike Dorning of the Tribune Washington Bureau has just posted an item on The Swamp that reprints a memo sent by Obama campaign manager David Plouffe to reporters today, laying out the strategic situation. Plouffe argues that Obama is gaining at Clinton's expense, not only in Iowa but in other early states like Nevada and South Carolina:

The decisive factor for the majority of voters in the 2008 primary season will be determining which candidate can really deliver change they can believe in. Barack Obama believes that to bring about fundamental change three things have to be accomplished. First, the next President must have the ability to unify the country, bringing Republicans and Independents together with Democrats to solve the nation’s most pressing problems. Obama has a track record and approach suited to this challenge while Senator Clinton is likely to unite the GOP against her candidacy as well as her Presidency. And Senator Edwards does not show an inclination toward unity, suggesting compromise is a dirty word.

Plouffe portrays Clinton as beholden to PACs and Washington lobbyists, and Edwards as failing to make reform of the system his top priority. He excoriates Clinton for "ducking and dodging tough questions" and chastises Edwards for apologizing "for most of his record while in the Senate."

Turning to Iowa specifically, Plouffe argues that Edwards has too much ground to make up and Clinton's aura of invincibility is at risk:

We find it amusing that the Clinton campaign is attempting to lower expectations in Iowa, despite leading in most Iowa polls. Their argument seems to suggest there is a one state exception for inevitability, that somehow Iowa is the one place in the country immune to her appeals.

It’s lunacy. Iowa is close because voters there are developing a depth of knowledge about Obama’s message and are paying close attention to the race and beginning to go through the decision making process.

Newsweek recently stated that if Clinton does not win Iowa, her candidacy could “implode.” That may be too strong a term but not that far off the mark. You live by inevitability and die by inevitability and there are growing signs in the last 10 days that Clinton’s support in the early states, as well as nationally, is fairly thin and eroding.

Plouffe reviews the situation in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina with similar arguments as to Obama's growing strength. As to the Feb. 5th states, Plouffe writes that Edwards has laid no groundwork and Clinton's organizing efforts are trailing Obama's:

As best we can tell, Clinton only has a meaningful presence in California and New Jersey. Edwards has no formal presence in the February 5th states. The bottom line is this: At a time when we are rounding the corner to the final stretch before the voting begins, Barack Obama is well-positioned and on the move. We are, as Barack would say, “Fired up, and ready to go!”

It may be spin, and the apparent momentum may shift again in the next 50 days, but it also could be the first breaking of the logjam in a contest dominated by Clinton for many months.