OH-05: DCCC Pours Cash Into Race

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pulled out all the stops on the 5th Ohio Congressional District race, pouring over $150,000 into a TV ad attacking State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green). Meanwhile, contributions to Robin Weirauch (D-Bowling Green) are continuing at a very strong pace, with FEC filings showing $29,100 contributed today (including $5,000 each from the SEIU and the New Jersey-based Shore PAC), $15,100 contributed yesterday (including $5,000 from the United Steelworkers and $2,000 from Rep Barney Frank (D-MA)), and $13,300 contributed last Wednesday.

The Latta campaign reported receiving $69,500 last Friday but nothing since. Believe me, the DCCC and other contributers are making a real race out of the 5th Congressional District special. It's a sprint to the finish, and Weirauch has plenty of cash to carry her across the finish line.

Update from Earl 6:42 AM: Both campaigns have their new ads running during the local news on Toledo TV this morning.

Latta's ad touts his pro-business stance. It's as if he was still running in a GOP primary because that message is dog that won't hunt with independent voters. It's clearly aimed squarely at the most affluent part of the GOP base.

Turnout

It is actually a pretty smart move by Latta in terms of the commercial he is running. He doesn't need to get a single independent vote to win..he just needs to get the republicans out to vote so why not play to the base. Turnout is going to be very low (special election with nothing else on the ballot; in December two weeks before Christmas; cold weather; dark when people go to work and come home; and snow and freezing rain is likely). The number of independents who actually vote is going to be very, very low. This race will be decided strictly on GOTV.

If most of the democrats who voted in the primary come out to vote, Robin has a pretty good shot at the upset. I would anticipate a fair amount of republicans who voted in the primary and voted for someone else (57%) will stay at home or vote for Robin. After all, if Bob Latta loses, it opens the door for Buehrer, Gardner and a number of other people to run next year. A congressional seat for the republicans opens up once every 20 years or so so if Buehrer misses this chance, it will pass him by. Notice he hasn't endorsed Latta. It will be interesting to see how Latta does in counties Buehrer carried as I wonder if there will be some quiet voting for Robin about Buehrer backers to open the door for him next year.

Good points

I should have put my remarks into context.

Yes, if this were anything LIKE a regular election Latta's "I heart robber barons" ad would have been nearly suicidal.

But the multi-million dollar question has become:

Who's gonna show up on Election Day?

You're wrong about the

You're wrong about the Buehrer theory. It has been my personal observation that those that worked the hardest for Steve, are now out working very hard for Latta. In fact, many of Steve's county coordinators are already actively engaged in Bob Latta's campaign. Case in point, I heard that Buehrer's political director was in BG last night making phone calls at the Victory Center.

Then why hasn't Buehrer endorsed Latta

Here we are so close to the election and Buehrer hasn't lifted a finger to help elect Latta. No endorsement, no kind word, nothing. And many of the county parties that endorsed Buehrer have their support for Latta buried on their websites. Further, almost all of the yards that had a Buehrer sign for the primary have no sign for the general. There might be a few very loyal republicans that are now working for Latta but the majority are sitting on their hands and I predict will either stay at home or vote for Robin. We'll find out in about a week.

"No endorsement, no kind

"No endorsement, no kind word, nothing."

I seem to remember Steve Buehrer sending out a statement on Wednesday, November 8th pledging his support to Bob and calling the tone of the Primary Campaign "regrettable."

"And many of the county parties that endorsed Buehrer have their support for Latta buried on their websites."

That's just a ridiculous statement...since you've obviously researched it, how many county parties in the 5th district actually have websites?

"Further, almost all of the yards that had a Buehrer sign for the primary have no sign for the general."

You're going to be hard pressed to find Latta yard signs in too many people's yards period, as they purchased only a very limited supply. if you know where I can get any, please let me know!

"There might be a few very loyal republicans that are now working for Latta but the majority are sitting on their hands and I predict will either stay at home or vote for Robin."

Again, a very ridiculous statement on so many levels. The loyal Republicans that sit at home are the ones that forget there is an election on December 11th, which is the only way Robin even comes close to winning. Unfortunately, too many Republicans feel that this election ended in the Primary. And, no, I repeat "no," loyal Republicans will be voting for a candidate endorsed by Emily's List.

Reply to Latta Staffer

1. Buehrer never specifically endorsed Latta so your memory is not correct. He said was "would support the conservative candidate" but since he claimed during the primary that Latta was a liberal and never made that claim about Robin, I am interpreting that to mean he is supporting Robin. In all seriousness, the statement that Buehrer made is a far cry from an endorsement, let alone an enthusiastic endorsement. And I still have not seen Buehrer appear with Latta once, make a robo call for Latta, send a direct mailer out, put a sign in his yard, appear in a tv ad, etc. Buehrer is completely absent from the campaign to elect Latta.

2. I have researched it and all but one of the counties have a website and all that endorsed Buehrer had Buehrer's endorsement much more prominently displayed than Latta's. You can't refute that as obviously you didn't check now or before. And that speaks volumes about the enthusiasm of the county parties for Latta. I remember very well the comment from one of the leaders of the counties parties that it is going to be tough to work for Latta when he didnt' even show up at the county meeting where the endorsement was given.

3. The reason he doesn't have many signs is because he doesn't inspire enthusiasm in anyone. If his last name was anything other than Latta, he would have never been elected anything. He is a horrible public speaker, a non charismatic candidate, an ineffective back bencher in the legislature who has long been over shadowed by virtually everyone in the Northwest Ohio delegation to Columbus. They didn't get signs because they know they don't have the volunteers to put them up or the committed people to have the signs in the yards. A perceptive move on their part.

And yes, many loyal republicans will either stay at home and not vote or will vote for Robin because they dislike Latta and/or believe he is not a true conservative and/or want to give the edge to Buehrer, Gardner, or someone else next time. If you think Buehrer and Gardner want Latta to win, you are incredibly naive.

I invite you to shut me up

I invite you to shut me up once and for all; show me exactly how informed you are. Please provide the 15 county party websites in the 5th District that you claim exists...

Because like all of your other "opinions" (they're definitely not fact), IMHO they're wrong.

Not a Latta Staffer, just an informed voter

In his release, Steve specifically used the name "Bob Latta," not Robin Weirauch or the conservative as you claim. Further, it's my understanding that Steve is working for Bob. In fact, it's my understanding that there is paid media featuring Steve throughout his Senate District. Since it's targeted, and you're obviously a Dem, you're probably not getting it.

"I have researched it and all but one of the counties have a website."

Sorry to inform you, captain. But, only 5 out of the 16 counties in the 5th have working websites. I fail to really see where this is really relevant other than to provide further evidence that you have no idea what you're talking about.

Defiance – no website
Williams – www.wmscogop.org
Paulding – no website
Van Wert – no website
Mercer – exists (www.bright.net/~republican), but has been down for a long time
Fulton - www.fultoncogop.org
Henry – no website
Putnam – no website
Wood - www.woodcountyrepublicanparty.com
Sandusky – no website
Seneca – no website
Wyandot – no website
Crawford – no website
Huron – no website
Ashland - www.ashlandcountyrepublicans.com
Lucas - www.lucasgop.org

#3 should not even be justified with a response.

Finally, I may be naive (I obviously don't think so), but you are incredibly misinformed.

Loyal Republicans?

Is there such a thing anymore? I know of alot of new Independents and some new Democrats, but I haven't seen too many republicans in my traditionally conservative republican territory. Tom Noe and the theft of millions cured alot of them, you might get lucky and get a few votes from some of them. But the days of 'loyal' republicans outside of the paid party operatives and the criminally insane are long gone the way of Taft, Blackwell and all the rest of the dodos.

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