OH-05: New Poll - Buehrer (R) Has Momentum Against Latta (R)

The Club for Growth is touting new polling that they say shows State Sen. Steve Beuhrer (R-Delta) passing State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) with one week to go before the 5th Congressional District special primary, although the difference between the candidates is still within the poll's margin of error.

Here are the results from three polls, showing undecided voters moving into the Buehrer column as the campaign goes along:

10/27-28/07 10/15/07 09/19/07
Buehrer 28% 25% 14%
Latta 25% 28% 27%
Other 6% 4%
Undecided 41% 43% 59%

Each of these three polls interviewed 300 likely GOP primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.66%. The polls were conducted by Basswood Research on September 19, 2007, October 15, 2007, and October 27-28, 2007.

In the most recent poll, among voters who have an opinion of both of the candidates, Buehrer is favored by 37% compared to 33% for Latta, 7% for others, and 23% undecided.

The poll also asked voters whether a Congressional candidate's vote on the 2003 budget, characterized as "includ[ing] record tax and spending increases," would affect their vote. A majority said it would, with 32% calling it a major factor and 47% a small factor. A minority said it was no factor (14%) or didn't know (14%).

Polling

Has there been any polling done on the general election matchup? I would love to see how Robin Weirauch is doing there - especially after the dirty primary Mr. Latta and Mr. Buehrer have been running.

Excellent question

I doubt that there is any, but it would be very interesting to see. A Buehrer primary win, if it happens, has got to be good news for Weirauch. Buehrer is miles from being the avuncular (love that word) figure that Gillmor was, and doesn't have the legacy and institutional support that Latta has. And Buehrer is WAY out there ideologically.

And, most people in the 5th

You're way off base with your assessment of Buehrer. He is the only candidate with a grassroots network in all 16 counties in the 5th District and has the support of a majority of GOP county chairs there. Ideologically, any of the 5 Republican candidates match up with voters in the 5th District much better than Weirauch. I'm sure the Dems are kicking themselves right now for not finding a better candidate than this Hillary clone to run in this very conservative district. If not for Weirauch being the D nominee, I'm afraid this seat might actually be in play in December.

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