OH-05: Rothenberg Says Race "Going Down To The Wire"

Writing on Real Clear Politics today, in a piece called "GOP Tries to Avoid Unpleasant Surprise in Ohio," prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg calls it a close race:

[W]hile political operatives from both parties scramble to downplay expectations, there is more than enough evidence to conclude that the race to fill the seat of the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R) is going down to the wire.

Republican Bob Latta, who should, under normal circumstances, win the race rather easily, finds himself in an uncomfortably competitive race against Democrat Robin Weirauch, who already has lost two bids for Congress in the district.

A nasty Republican primary, during which the Club for Growth ran TV ads attacking Latta, combined with the political environment in the Buckeye State that one GOP political observer described as "very toxic," has some Republicans privately expressing the fear that their party could lose a seat that it should not be forced to worry about.

Rothenberg thinks that Latta is likely to prevail, but reports that the result is hard to predict because it is all about turnout:

A smart Democrat who is following the race closely told me recently that given the uncertainty about who will vote in the special election, it really doesn't matter whether Weirauch is ahead or behind by a few points in late polling. "It's all about turnout," the Democrat said.

And that's exactly why Republicans have pounded Weirauch as a liberal in the campaign's final days. The Democrat, who is backed by EMILY's List, is far better off if the election is about Latta, divisions in the GOP ranks, the war in Iraq or popular Gov. Ted Strickland (D), than if it is about her.

One savvy Republican agreed that the outcome rests primarily on turnout. "If Republican voters stay home, [Latta] will get beat," the GOP observer said. "Are Republican voters so depressed that they won't show up to vote? How angry are the supporters of [GOP primary loser state Sen. Steve] Buehrer? Are they willing to sit back and let her win so that he can beat her next time?"

That last part is critical. It is apparent that movement conservatives are not enthused about Latta, but whether they will stay home is less clear.