OH-16: Cillizza - "5th Most Likely Pick-Up" UPDATED
Now that the retirement plans of Rep. Ralph Regula (R-Navarre) are official, this district opens as #5 on handicapper Chris Cillizza's monthly lineup of the ten House districts most likely to change hands:
Rep. Ralph Regula's retirement, while expected, creates major problems for Republicans. Democrats were already high on their candidate -- state Sen. John Boccieri -- and got even more so following Regula's retirement. For good reason: Boccieri has a compelling personal story (he's a major in the Air Force Reserves) and raised $274,000 in the last three months. Republicans seem headed for a primary, and it's not clear that the GOP brand in Ohio has recovered from the devastating blow it took in 2006.
Ohio's 2nd Congressional District, where there is still no credible opponent for second-time candidate Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus), remains at #2. There are nine Republican seats and only one Democratic seat among the ten.
UPDATE: Just to complete the record, Stuart Rothenberg rates OH-15 the #1 most likely pick-up, and OH-16 #6 on the list.