Advertisements

All About McSame

Everything you really need to know:

1--John McCain Votes to Filibuster Minimum Wage Hike

2--McCain housing policy shaped by lobbyist

3--Bush, McCain plug Social Security

4--McCain blasts Obama's and Clinton's attacks on NAFTA

5--McCain in NH: Would Be "Fine" To Keep Troops in Iraq for "A Hundred Years"

6--McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion

7--Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition

8--McCain says overturn the law that legalized abortion

9--McCain Defends Bush's Iraq Strategy

Poll Craziness: Dispatch Has Clinton Up By 16 Points

Submitted by Jeff on Mon, 03/03/2008 - 9:41am.

The Dispatch mail-in poll released yesterday has Clinton up by a huge margin over Obama:

56% Clinton
40% Obama
4% Other

This result is far out of synch with other recent polls. The two-day Zogby tracking poll now has Obama up by two points (within the 3.6 margin of error), and the average of polls at Pollster.com has Clinton up by only six points.

However, the Dispatch concedes that the actual result will determined by voter turnout and may vary greatly from this poll result. The 16 point lead anticipates the "usual turnout scenario dominated by loyal, older party voters -- especially if women show up in force." If there is an "unusual influx of young and black poll-goers" then the lead drops to "healthy single digits," according to the pollster. This poll sampled only registered Democrats, so the result would be further affected by a big turnout among independents, who have strongly favored Obama in other polls. In short, not a reliable poll.

Add new comment

Pollster.com excluded this one

Submitted by efc on Mon, 03/03/2008 - 12:02pm.

Note that Pollster.com has excluded this Dispatch poll from its algorithm. They point out that in a year when turnout might reach 52% the Dispatch decision to only send the mail-in poll to folks who had previously voted in primaries was a fatal flaw in methodology.