Roundup of Congressional Pickup Opportunities in Ohio Posted

Ohio-based blogger RandomNonviolence has posted an excellent review of the seven congressional races in Ohio where Democrats have a chance to take over GOP-held seats, including background information for each district, total receipts and cash on hand as of the end of the 3rd quarter (plus independent expenditures), and endorsements and rankings by certain progressive commentators.

How do these races shake out in terms of likelihood of Democratic success? This is how the races rank as I see it:

OH-16 - State senator and military veteran John Boccieri (D-Alliance) is a tremendously appealing candidate and has emerged as the most likely contender to grab a Republican seat, aided by massive and unanswered DCCC expenditure and a lot of hard work on fund-raising and in the ground game. The most recent polling has shown Boccieri with a strong lead over State Sen. Kirk Schuring (R-North Canton): ten points in a Research2000 poll taken September 30-October 1 and eight points in a Survey USA poll taken September 19-21. I'll be very surprised (and disappointed) if Boccieri doesn't win this historically Republican but blue-trending district quite handily.

OH-15 - This district is more politically balanced than OH-16 but county commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus) faces a stronger opponent in state senator and military veteran Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington) and the NRCC has been active in this race. Kilroy is nevertheless likely to win, helped by an anti-abortion third party candidate who draws some support away from Stivers and by help from the DCCC and Emily's List. Kilroy's attacks on Stivers as a career bank lobbyist are more compelling in the present political environment than Stivers' criticism of Kilroy's handling of a baseball park construction project on behalf of the county. A poll released two weeks ago by Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research showed Kilroy with an eight point lead, and a Survey USA poll in late September showed her with a five point lead.

OH-01 - This district famously has the highest proportion of African-American voters of any GOP-held district (over 25%) and the fate of challenger State Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Price Hill) probably hinges on turnout in the black community. Driehaus may fare better in the western suburbs than past Democratic candidates because he is opposed to abortion and grew up in the area, but the real key is whether urban voters in Cincinnati turn out in high numbers due to the presidential race. A Research 2000 poll on October 7 showed Driehaus up by two points over Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Westwood), and a Survey USA poll in late September showed Driehaus trailing by two points. I am hopeful about this race but not as confident as I am about OH-16 or OH-15.

OH-02 - Although Dr. Victoria Wulsin (D-Indian Hill) took Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) to a recount in 2006, losing by only a few thousand votes, she still faces an uphill battle because this district has very a strong Republican lean and Wulsin has good progressive values. If Wulsin wins it will be the result of Schmidt's perverse talent for embarrassing gaffes and misrepresentations and the surprisingly strong bid by independent candidate David Krikorian (I-Madeira), a conservative small business owner. Wulsin is in the DCCC Red-to-Blue program but hasn't yet had the benefit of any independent expenditures. Survey USA showed Schmidt up by eight points in late September, but that poll didn't include Krikorian. A poll at the end of September commissioned by Wulsin showed her only a single point back, with Krikorian taking 11% of the vote. Schmidt claims that her internal polling shows her with a double-digit lead. Wulsin's chances depend on how deep is the evident dissatisfaction with Schmidt and the Republican brand. Although it won't be easy, a Wulsin victory could well occur especially if those predicting a Democratic wave election are correct.

OH-07 - This open-seat race is a sentimental favorite. Business attorney Sharen Neuhardt (D-Yellow Springs) is a political novice but she has worked very hard and has done just about everything right. Her efforts have earned the support of the DCCC and Emily's List. The district has a fairly strong GOP lean and hasn't had a Democratic representative since the 1930s, but GOP contender State Sen. Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek) is something of an empty suit and the tanking economy has opened the door for a pro-business Democrat like Neuhardt. Thanks to her strong fund-raising, Neuhardt has been able to run TV ads to help get her message out. Although Austria is not the incumbent he is a career politician and belongs to the party that has dominated this district (as well as state and federal government), and Neuhardt has worked hard to turn the anti-incumbent sentiment against him. Austria has responded with a despicable personal attack (characterizing Neuhardt's care for a Rwandan refugee as "harboring an illegal immigrant") and a lot may depend on how voters respond to that tactic. There hasn't been any polling released to show Neuhardt close to Austria, but some polls indicate a generic Democratic candidate close to a generic Republican and Obama is doing surprisingly well here. Neuhardt is in good position to pull off an upset if the election moves strongly toward Democrats across the board.

OH-03 - This relatively balanced district would be eminently winnable if it were an open seat, but incumbent Mike Turner (R-Centerville) is a former mayor of Dayton (where most of votes are located) and is going to be very hard to dislodge despite news reports linking him to questionable dealings (earning him a "Dishonorable Mention" from CREW). Challenger Jane Mitakides (D-Washington Twp) is no political novice, generally praised for taking 41% of the vote against Turner in 2004, but Turner has a 5-to-1 advantage in cash-on-hand and the DCCC has not picked up this race. Without a TV campaign against Turner, it is hard to see the incumbent getting dislodged here.

OH-14 - It is painful to write about this race because I have a lot of respect for flinty Vietnam veteran and former appellate judge Bill O'Neill (D-South Russell), but incumbent Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Twp) is a GOP power-broker with deeply entrenched support from local interests and the GOP establishment. LaTourette ought to be vulnerable due to his ties to Jack Abramoff and Bob Ney and his cozy relationship with special interests, but he has a huge financial advantage in this race and it doesn't look like the challenger is going to be able to get on television. O'Neill was slowed by heart surgery in May and for whatever reasons is not in a position to wage the kind of high-profile campaign that might overcome LaTourette's name recognition and the advantages of incumbency.