Surge in Provisional Ballots Could Trigger Severe Criticism of Election Process

This could become a very big story in Ohio, depending on what is revealed in the coming days.

The Secretary of State has not yet released information on the number of provisional ballots cast in last Tuesday's primary election, despite the fact that county boards of elections were legally required to report that information by last Wednesday morning. Word is leaking out that the numbers will be very large indeed. Election law expert Dan Tokaji writes on the excellent Equal Vote Blog that provisional ballots in Franklin County may top 6%:

I have learned that a large number of provisional ballots were cast in Franklin County (Columbus area) on Tuesday. The total reported turnout was 299,688, but I'm told that there are approximately 20,000 additional provisional ballots that have yet to be verified or counted. If that's correct, it means that around 6.25% of Franklin County voters cast a provisional ballot. That's a lot.

That would continue an upward trend from the 2.8% provisionals cast in 2004 and a higher proportion in 2006.

Why are provisional ballots troubling? For one thing, they delay the announcement of final results. However, they are a sign of deeper problems with the election process, as Prof. Tokaji explains:

A large number of provisional ballots can indicate problems in a state's registration system. Also, to the extent a state relies heavily on provisional ballots, it's likely that some voters will be disenfranchised. Moreover, county-to-county discrepancies in the way provisional ballots are verified can alter the result of a close election -- and possibly lead to equal protection concerns.

Here's the kicker -- the blog reader who sounded the alarm about Tokaji's blog post apparently has some source of information about Cuyahoga County, because that reader indicates that in Ohio's largest county the reported number of provisional was more than 20,000 and may approach 25,000 by the time they are all found. That is close to 8% of votes cast on election day, a shocking proportion. If true, that means that there are serious issues with the voter rolls and/or the procedures for voter identification.

This could be a major embarrassment for county elections officials and a secretary of state who were hoping for a smoother, more efficient election this time around.