SUSA Polls for OH-01, OH-02, OH-15 and OH-16

James Lambert at Swingstate Project has the results of Survey USA polls commissioned by Roll Call for four Ohio congressional races:

OH-01
46% Chabot (R)*
44% Driehaus (D)
6% Other

OH-02
48% Schmidt (R)*
40% Wulsin (D)
10% Other

OH-15
47% (47%) Kilroy (D)
42% (44%) Stivers
5% (7%) Eckhardt (I)

OH-16
49% Boccieri (D)
41% Schuring (R)

The internal numbers are available: OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-16. The margin of error is 3.9% in OH-01 and OH-02, 4% in OH-15 and OH-16.

In the two races with incumbents, it is encouraging that neither is at or above 50%, and Driehaus is within the margin of error.

In OH-02, "Other" apparently includes the independent candidate, David Krikorian, who has been running a fairly energetic campaign and is expected to draw votes away from Schmidt. I suspect that not asking about him by name affected the results. Putting that aside, however, the crosstabs based on party identification are good for Wulsin. She has a slightly higher number among Democrats and Liberals than Schmidt does among Republican and Conservatives, and she leads among Independents 5:4 and among Moderates 5:3.

UPDATE: In OH-01, which is 28% African-American, Driehaus should win if black voters turn out in very large numbers. This poll assumes 28% turnout, but the pollster indicates that 30% black turnout would make the race a tie and higher than that would presumably tilt the race in favor of the Democrat, since Driehaus leads among black voters by 65% to 21%. The approval numbers in the district for Bush in the district are 29% favorable/65% unfavorable, for McCain are 39%/43%, for Obama are 51%/36%. Obama leads in this district by 52% to 43%.