What If? What's Next if Fisher and Ryan Stay Put?

George Voinovich hadn't even formally announced his intention to retire and everyone started making and taking bets on who would replace him. Virtually every political blog (and certainly every newspaper) laid out the case for and against the likely names - Portman, Kasich, Fisher and Ryan. On the Republican side, it would certainly seem like Rob Portman will be the party nominee. He's got some money in the bank and probably a whole lot more coming down the road. It doesn't ensure him a primary victory though. Lots of things can, and will happen between now and spring of 2010. But, if you were going to make the safe, put-your-reputation-on-the-line bet, you'd take Portman and be happy with it.

The Democrats have a whole different game and it's far more interesting. Over on this side, we've got a chance to pick-up a Senate seat we haven't had in over a decade. With that opportunity comes great risk. For the two people most frequently discussed as candidates, the risk may prove to be too great.

For Lee Fisher, running for the Senate means surrendering his position as Lt. Governor. Since the Governor and Lt. Gov are up for re-election, Ted would need a new running mate and a Senate loss to Portman leaves Fisher unemployed and possibly politically retired. Risky.

For Tim Ryan, running for the Senate means walking away from the House for a chance to move up to the Senate while still in his 30s. Bigger job, bigger staff, bigger office. Nice. The downside? A loss to Portman leaves Tim Ryan searching for a new job and not having many short-term options. His current seat would likely stay Democratic and be filled by a new Congressperson who would probably be untouchable. The Governor would have either been re-elected or defeated, but with four years until the next election, he'd be out of the game for a couple of years. Ryan could find a spot in the Obama administration, but that's not really a prime gig if you're looking to stay active and viable for a future run.

So what happens if Fisher and Ryan both weigh the options and opt-out? Brunner and Cordray shouldn't be moving anywhere, and why would they? If Fisher and Ryan aren't going to get in the pool, I don't see much to motivate current state office holders facing re-election (like Brunner, Cordray or Strickland). They'd have to raise far more money and would probably have tougher races against Portman than the dead weight the GOP runs for their current gigs.

The Democrats could find themselves looking at a race where they could be competitive, but not finding a candidate to run. So where does that take this discussion? To the Wild Cards! Ah, yes, the Wild Cards! The pack of interesting candidates who could (just maybe) find themselves in the right place at the right time in history. Facing long odds and a skeptical donor base, here are some extra names to kick around as candidates who could, under an odd set of circumstances, not only announce candidacies, but maybe even win the whole darn thing (or at least a primary).

Michael Coleman - Big. City. Mayor. Those three words alone should get his name in the mix. Yes, there are some family issues which could pose a problem, but he's still popular in Columbus, would probably be able to raise money and should be able to outline a concise campaign message.

Don Plusquellic - See above. Plusquellic has been Mayor of Akron since 1987. 1987, y'all! That's got to count for something, right? His name seems to be discussed every four years for Governor, but that's off the table until at least 2014. He too could probably articulate a vision, raise some early primary cash, and make a race of it.

Mark Mallory - See above, again. A former State Senator with a family history of public service, Mallory is another big city mayor who would make for an interesting statewide candidate. Could probably raise some money and would likely have several people (some with deep pockets or big rolodexes) lining up to take his office on his way out the door. He's a southern Ohioan who could give fellow southerner Portman a few extra headaches.

Dennis Kucinich - Could Dennis really run statewide and win? In any other year, I'd think not. But, with an economy on the brink of disaster, unemployment rising faster, and at the early days of a new, strengthening era of progressive activism, the Cleveland populist could (maybe) compete and win a Democratic primary. He'd certainly have a loyal progressive following both statewide and nationally. However, he had that in two runs for president and was never able to gain traction in the early primaries. Still, with a national fundraising list, anything is possible.

Elizabeth Kucinich - Bet you hadn't thought of this one yet, huh? Sure, Dennis rubs some people the wrong way. But what about Elizabeth? Possibly the more popular of the two Kuciniches, Elizabeth has been one of the most high profile congressional spouses in America. During Dennis' 2008 primaries (both congressional and presidential), Elizabeth made daily stump speeches and was actually pretty darn good at times. I don't see a single scenario where she'd be a candidate in this race, and I've got to believe the British accent won't play in most parts of the state, but she'd generate a ton of earned media and would be too compelling to dismiss out of the gate. And if you've seen her speak in public, you know she thinks she belongs on the stage. That's makes her a little dangerous in a race with no clear front-runner.

Betty Sutton - The second-term congresswoman from Northeast Ohio is relatively unknown outside her district, but she'd bring considerable labor support - possibly early in a primary - and would likely have the backing of women's groups such as EMILY's List early on. The major downside for Sutton, like Fisher and Ryan, is a loss puts her career in jeopardy.

Ted Celeste - The State Rep from the Upper Arlington area brings name ID (as the brother of a former governor), and a has a statewide run in his pocket (a loss to Mike DeWine for Senate in 2000). As an under-funded Democrat running in a Republican state, Celeste probably never had a real shot in that race. However, the map is bluer now and financial support (at least post-primary) would probably be a little easier to come by.

Chris Redfern - Young and energetic, the State Party Chair might be rewarded for his role in delivering Ohio for Obama and Strickland/Brown by earning early support of party faithful. His contacts and connections both in Columbus and statewide would probably allow him to raise the early money and lock down key endorsements. After leaving the House as Minority Leader because of term limits, you get the feeling that somehow, someday, Redfern will be back on the ballot. Now could be that moment.

Dean DiPiero - Redfern's predecessor as Minority Leader, DiPiero is the popular mayor of Parma (the 7th largest city in Ohio). Like his friend Redfern, DiPiero is young, energized, and politically sharp. He toyed with an entry in the 10th Congressional Primary in 2008 against Dennis Kucinich, but sat out in the end. Could this be an opportunity too good to pass up?

Capri Cafaro - Cafaro reportedly floated a few trial balloons at the 2008 Convention in Denver, but shortly after the November elections accepted the role of Senate Minority Leader. Smart and ambitious, Cafaro has already run for the U.S. House twice (in two different districts) before being selected to finish the State Senate term of Marc Dann as he moved up to Attorney General. The Cafaro talk seems to have completely disappeared for now, but could it re-emerge? And if Tim Ryan did run for the Senate, would Cafaro quickly eye his House seat?

Gordon Gee - The popular President of THE Ohio State University would be the most outside-the-box entrant in this race, but let's face it, the guy looks like a Senator. (More specifically, he looks like the late Paul Simon - at least in attire) With the bow tie and glasses, you can see him sitting there with Kennedy, Schumer and Dodd. He'd certainly be an interesting candidate and has probably raised more money in his stints as university president than the rest of this list combined. He'd have the fattest, most off-the-hook donor file in the state and it's filled with people who frequently drop seven figure checks the way you and I pull out debit cards.

At the end of the day, we're probably looking at one of the media-annointed front runners, but it's always fun to speculate on the "what-ifs."

The next big question is "who runs against Mary Taylor for Auditor?"

UPDATE : Sorry Bill!!! Judge Bill O'Neill, the former Supreme Court Candidate and U.S. House Candidate comments below that HE'S in the race if Fisher is out. Very interesting. Thanks Judge for the update and sorry we omitted you from the first draft.