Who's Crazier? Jennifer Brunner or Me?
Submitted by Anthony Fossaceca on Wed, 10/21/2009 - 8:55am.
The Democratic Senate race is getting some extra attention on both sides of the aisle this week as all sides agree that Lee Fisher will be the Democratic nominee come May of 2010. My problem is I don't agree with that conclusion - yet.
This back-and-forth over money has been going on since both candidates jumped into the race way back when the snow was still flying. And yes, I'll be the first to admit I was off a bit on my early projections. I anticipated Lee Fisher beating Jennifer Brunner in Q1 (which he did) and slowly dropping off as Brunner gained momentum (which she hasn't).
Things have apparently gotten so bad for the SoS that she's tossed her Finance Team and is burning money faster than she can bring it in. This troubling development has everyone rushing to deliver Last Rites. Everyone is declaring Brunner finished and the speculation is developing on when she'll drop out. I'm proud to report that we have your exclusive answer here at OhioDaily.
Jennifer Brunner will stop seeking the Democratic nomination on May 5, 2010.
From now until the primary, Brunner can raise a billion dollars, or collect pocket lint. I'm not convinced that it matters to her. It certainly doesn't look like she's going anywhere.
And why should she?
I have yet to see a poll that shows Brunner getting rocked by Rob Portman. Same goes for Lee Fisher. Certainly if Jennifer Brunner had a poll showing her suffering a humiliating loss in a primary, she'd possibly reconsider this race and pack the dogs in the truck for the weekend. But no such poll exists (at least I've not seen it) and no one is pulling away. Plus, with more than six months to go, it's anyone's guess what twists and turns this primary race could still take. Unfortunately, in our desperate attempt to be first to the keyboard, political journalists, bloggers, pundits, and psychics are carelessly leaving out the obvious fact : this race is still pretty even. That could no doubt change as Fisher starts spending the money he has.
Does Jennifer Brunner need to raise a lot more money? Probably. Does she need to raise as much as Fisher? Probably not. I continue to believe that Brunner's camp is preparing to fight this thing on the ground as opposed to the air. That will require a whole lot more organizing and a stronger field operation, but she's got experienced people running her show with history in the state. Plus, she's captured the hearts of many activists in a way Fisher still hasn't been able to do. And she's been more thoughtful and proactive on the issues (at least through her campaign). Meanwhile Fisher's campaign continues to feel more reactionary at times, issuing releases based on the political flavor-of-the-day. That's not a poke at Lee, just a personal observation. It means more to me when Brunner calls for banking reform on her own, with specific ideas, then when Fisher does it as part of a larger, more coordinated effort with action already occurring in the Senate. Yes, it gives Fisher a better chance to piggy back on the news-of-the-day, but I doubt it's making much impact on the electorate.
I'm not going to sit here and suggest all is well for Team Brunner. Frankly, things look pretty lousy for her chances if you are going just by the checkbook - and even her most loyal supporters will begin peeling off if she doesn't show a little more moxie in the fundraising call room. Still, I'm not willing to write her off and I'm more than a little surprised with so many months to go, and polling still very close, and support very soft, everyone else is close to doing just that.
So, call me the outcast, call me crazy, call me what you want.
I'm sticking to calling this race a dead heat.
There's no poll at this point
that would be meaningful. Voters just don't know the candidates or the issues, and they haven't seen the campaign. Face it: 80% of voters at this point are in fact undecided. I agree the money thing is distressing, but I have seen and heard what is going on, and I don't think it's remotely fatal. Of course, the "other side of the aisle" wants to declare Jennifer dead. She'll be tougher to beat. It doesn't matter WHAT polls say: Lee simply hasn't come up with an engaging campaign. And with far, far less money than Portman (face it, that's going to be the case for either Democrat), he will NEED that desperately to pull out a win. I have observed the same thing you have about Lee's far-less-frequent issues releases. They are reactive or totally out of sync with what's going on for no apparent reason. They feel pro forma and not very passionate. And more of them have to do with his money and endorsements than with issues.
If he succeeds in pushing Jennifer out of the race – the clear goal of focusing on money and endorsements while pushing issues to the back burner – then I suppose his campaign team will feel it has been successful. I hope they are readying a radical retool for the general, because failing that, he will have an uphill climb against Portman. I still think he CAN win against Portman, if he does one thing successfully: come up with a compelling reason why he left the director of development job at a time when it's crucial to the state. He needs to have that ready because Portman won't hesitate to stuff this down his throat. Personally, I would like to hear his response NOW. I think he needs to beat Portman to the punch.