Zogby Poll: Obama and Clinton Tied in Ohio

A new poll by Zogby International for Reuters, C-SPAN, and the Houston Chronicle shows the race virtually tied in Ohio:

44% Clinton
42% Obama
1% Gravel
5% Other
9% Unsure

Although Clinton is a statistically insignificant two points ahead, the pollster suggests that the trends actually give Obama the upper hand, with undecided voters more likely to go his way:

[Clinton's] strength stems from the same demographic groups that carried her to victories earlier in the campaign, but the trend appears to favor Obama, as late deciders are more likely to support him over her, the survey shows, and 9% of Ohio Democrats say they have yet to make up their minds. ...

Among those who made up their minds "more than a month ago," Clinton leads 63% to 37%. Obama leads by margins as big among those who made up their minds less than a month ago, a week ago, and within the past few days. In the same vein, Clinton leads by 6 among those who have already voted.

The pollster also surveyed Texas, where Obama leads Clinton by 48% to 42%. On the GOP side, McCain has a solid lead in both statates, 62% to 19% in Ohio and 53% to 27% in Texas.

Other recent polls have shown the Democratic race in Ohio tightening, but this is the first to point to a victory for Obama rather than a close race still favoring Clinton. The cross-tabs are similar to other recent polls:

Clinton leads among Democrats, women, voters over 50, and everywhere outside the three big cities. She also leads among Catholics, voters in union households, and moderates. Obama leads among voters under 50, especially those under 30, and among liberals.

As to the Ohio Democratic results, the poll included 708 likely voters and has a margin of error of of 3.8 points.