P2008: New Poll Shows Edwards, Obama & Clinton Tied in Iowa

Six months out from the Iowa caucuses, the Democratic presidential race there is shaping up to be a nail-biter, even as national polls show front runner Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) consolidating her substantial lead. Released today by the Washington Post, the poll shows Clinton virtually tied with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC):

27% Obama
26% Edwards
26% Clinton

Among the others only Gov. Bill Ricardson (D-NM) breaks into double digits at 10%, with everybody else at 2% or less.

The Iowa caucuses have tended to influence the subsequent New Hampshire primary, and such early contests have dramatically swung national polls and subsequent primaries in past presidential cycles. Such a scenario in 2008 is clearly the best hope for the candidates pursuing Clinton, especially Edwards (who has generally polled in third place).

The internals of the new Iowa poll are fascinating. Among the half of likely caucus goers who are looking primarily for new ideas and a new direction, Obama leads at 37% over Edwards at 30% and Clinton at 14%, and among voters under 45 years of age Obama also has a big lead (39% compared to 24% for Clinton and 22% for Edwards). However, among the 37% of likely caucus goers who are looking primarily for strength and experience, Clinton has a big advantage at 38% over Edwards at 21% and Obama and Richardson at 14%. Among voters over 45, Clinton is tied with Edwards at 28%. Older voters historically have made up a much larger proportion of caucus attendees (and of voters).

Only 14% of likely caucus goers regard Clinton as the most likeable or as the most honest and trustworthy. Interestingly, however, 35% rated her the most electable among the Democrats, with Obama and Edwards in the low 20s.

Nation is Trending Democratic

Make no mistake. The Democratic wave of 2006 was no fluke, and signs are emerging that there may be another blue tide in the critical presidential cycle of 2008.

The headline news in yesterday's MSNBC/WSJ presidential poll was that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) have widened their respective leads over their nearest rivals (Clinton now leads Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) by 43%-22%, Giuliani now leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) by 33%-20%). However, the poll also reveals that both Democratic front runners lead Giuliani in head-to-head matchups (Clinton by 47%-41%, Obama by 45%-40%). Although Clinton has a higher unfavorable rating than other candidates, her ratio has been steadily improving. She was 39% favorable/43% unfavorable in March, even at 42%/42% in June, and is now pulling ahead at 44% favorable/39% unfavorable. The MSNBC reporter writes that the poll adds up to "an edge for Democrats heading into the 2008 presidential election," with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart commenting that "the Democrats have the advantage of the perfect environment for them.”

GOP strategists and some media pundits have focused on the decline in approval ratings for the Democratic-led Congress (down to about 28%) and predict that alienated voters will blame the Democrats for Congressional gridlock and partisan bickering. However, generic Congressional ballot polling shows that Democrats lead Republicans by ten points, and an analysis released two days ago by Democracy Corps (a nonprofit outfit run by former Clinton aides Stan Greenberg and James Carville) argues persuasively that the public blames the GOP for the gridlock and looks to Democratic candidates to fix the nation's problems. Democracy Corps conducted national and battleground polls and determined that while disdain for Congress has deepened and 55% of respondents feel that the Democrats have not made progress on their election pledges, nevertheless the Democratic advantages in Presidential and Congressional races have consolidated and Democratic members in key races have gained in strength. Asked if the gridlock in Congress leads them to want to see more Democrats elected to Congress, 50% agreed and 40% disagreed. The same question applied to the Presidential race resulted in 52% agreeing that they want to see a Democrat in office, 39& disagreeing.

The Democrats' advantage is plainly fueled by deep and growing dissatisfaction with the Iraq debacle, but it is important to point out that Democratic views on a wide variety of issues are more widely supported than Republican views. This reality flatly contradicts the frequent and incorrect assertions by media pundits that America is basically a conservative country, and/or that Democrats have "lost the debate" on major issues to Republicans. The opposite is true. Media Matters and the Campaign for America's Future issued a joint report on July 5th called "The Progressive Majority: Why a Conservative America is a Myth." They reviewed nonpartisan public polling data from the last twenty years and determined that a majority of Americans believe in a strong and active government, not unfettered free markets and smaller government (for example, 67% say that we need a strong government to handle complex economic problems, while only 33% say that free markets can handle complex economic problems without government involvement, and 69% believe that government should care for those who can't care for themselves). Although most Americans think their taxes are too high, the issue actually ranks relatively low on the scale of importance. And get this: even on the hot-button social issues on which conservatives love to dwell, the majority are in line with progressives. A solid majority of 56% oppose making it more difficult to get an abortion, and only 29% want to see the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade. An overwhelming majority favor equal job rights for gays, and while a majority still oppose gay marriage the trend is going the other way, and already a majority do not want to see a gay marriage ban added to the U.S. Constitution. Most Americans want to see more restrictions on guns. And in perhaps less surprising results, a solid majority of Americans like labor unions, favor increasing health care coverage, and want more financial assistance for public schools.

The Democratic base is energized, as reflected in the superior overall fundraising performance by Democratic campaign organizations since 2006. The country is appalled at the Iraq conflict and the direction of the country in general, and still looks to the Democratic party for change. And, the ideological orientation of the nation is not more favorable to Republican policies, despite frequent statements to the contrary in the press. The conditions are good for another big year for Democrats in 2008.