Rally with Hillary Clinton at OSU's French Field House on Thursday, 2/14.
Details after the flip.
Rally with Hillary Clinton at Brush High School in Lyndhurst on Friday 2/15.
Details after the flip.
Nice to see that the Dems aren't going to sit around waiting to be attacked this time. Here is a DNC video ad targeting John McCain on his revisionism about Iraq:
SurveyUSA has released a new Ohio poll taken 2/10 and 2/11 and it shows Hillary Clinton with a big 17 point lead over Barack Obama among likely voters:
Clinton is buoyed by a strong showing among women (62% to 33%), voters over 65 (64% to 30%), Democrats (58% to 37%), whites (62% to 32%), Hispanics (87% to 8%), and those for whom the economy is the top issue (60% to 35%). Obama is statistically tied among males (47% to 46%) but does extremely well among African Americans (73% to 24%) and fairly well among independents (48% to 42%). He is not significantly ahead among voters for whom Iraq is the top issue (48% to 46%).
49% of Clinton supporters say that they could change their minds, compared to 40% for Obama supporters.
This is a very tough poll for the Obama campaign, without a doubt. SurveyUSA is a fairly reliable outfit and the primary is only three weeks away. However, Obama has shown that he can move the numbers dramatically when he comes to a state and starts making personal appearances before large crowds.
UPDATE: Good analysis by Pho, and by Redhorse in the comments. Jerid's efforts to portray this poll as good news for Obama (in comments here and at Pho's place) show that he's letting his support for Obama loosen his grip on reality. It's one thing to support Obama, as Jerid and I both do, it's another to twist the facts beyond all recognition. Obama has a lot of work to do if these numbers are going to shift before OT Tuesday, and if Clinton and her surrogates campaign hard as expected it's a long shot for him to do better than cutting into Clinton's lead.
Here it is -- short and pithy:
Called "Falling Through," it has a populist message about the Bush economy that is perfectly appropriate for Ohio, although according to The Daily Briefing it was not specially made for this state. It is airing across the state starting today.
Bev Campbell (D) and Nancy Garland (D) will address the February meeting of the Franklin County Young Democrats tonight in Columbus. This is a hotly contested primary in a critical Ohio House race.
Details after the flip - h/t DrTruth at BSB
On the heels of his Meet the Bloggers interview and yesterday's five-way debate, Joe Cimperman (D) has produced a new video that pounds Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) on missing votes while he campaigned for president:
The Obama for America campaign invites supporters to meet the campaign staff and learn about ways to help Obama carry Ohio.
Details after the break.
The biggest prize between the three primaries today and OT Tuesday on March 4th is the Dairy State (a week from today), and a poll just out from Public Policy Polling [.pdf] shows Obama defeating Clinton there among Cheeseheads in almost every demographic:
* 50% to 39% among all likely voters;
* 46% to 36% among women and 56% to 35% among men;
* 49% to 41% among whites and 66% to 24% among African Americans;
* 57% to 37% among voters aged 18 to 29;
* 55% to 34% among those most concerned about the Iraq War; and,
* 46% to 44% among self-identified Democrats (a category that Clinton has been winning elsewhere), and a whopping 63% to 25% among independents and 63% to 28% among Republicans.
The only categories where Clinton leads Obama are voters over age 65 (52% to 39%) and voters most concerned about the economy and jobs (47% to 45%) or morality and family values (46% to 30%).
The likely voter screen reflects anticipated heavy turnout among young voters and African-American voters, contributing to Obama's 50% to 39% margin. If the results are weighted to standard turnout instead, Obama's lead is reduced to 46% to 42%.
Wisconsin was something of a question mark, with Hawaii's primary on the same day thought more likely to go Obama's way. This poll makes Obama seem a good bet to go 10-0 in nominating contests between Super Tuesday and OT Tuesday.
Barack Obama was the first to announce a major TV buy in Ohio, but there are signs all around that a major push by Hillary Clinton in Ohio is starting immediately:
* Politics Extra reports that space hero John Glenn will make his endorsement of Clinton with Gov. Ted Strickland in Columbus this afternoon, and the two of them will make appearances around the state tomorrow and Thursday;
* The Daily Briefing says that Chelsea Clinton is speaking at OSU tomorrow and Ohio Wesleyan University in Delaware on Thurdsay;
* Hillary herself will be in Youngstown on Thursday and Cleveland on Friday; and,
* Clinton is also starting TV ads in Ohio today.
Representatives for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and OH-02 candidates Steve Black and Victoria Wulsin, will make statements and answer questions from a three-person panel.
Details after the flip.
It's morning in Ohio, the Potomac primaries are today, and OT Tuesday is only three weeks away. Ohio's progressive bloggers, the best in the nation, are pounding out must-read posts on the presidential race:
WLST: On Having a Beer With a Candidate - Jill tees off on Mark Naymik's interesting reaction to Hillary Clinton's endorsement interview with The Plain Dealer ("more comfortable with policy than people ... [n]obody likes a smarty-pants ...") with a criticism of the shallowness of the whole obsession with "who'd you like to have a beer with?" dimension in evaluating candidates. Also, last night she agreed with blogger Morra Arons that for all his newness, Barack Obama has lots of establishment ties and support.
PBD: Calling BS on Mark Penn - Great take-down by Redhorse of Clinton pollster/consultant Mark Penn for saying that Clinton "has consistently shown an electoral resiliency in difficult situations that have made her a winner." What exactly are these tough races that she has won? Also, Redhorse detailed yesterday how the stress of a rough week for Billary is starting to show.
Pho: Consensus on Magnitude of OT Tuesday - Noting reports that superdelegates regard the Ohio and Texas primaries as paramount, Pho says the task before Obama is clear: win Ohio and you should be able to wrap this up; lose here and throw the decision to the superdelegates.
Bellwether: Ghosts On The Ballot - Bill Sloat notes that six candidates now out of the race will appear on the presidential primary ballot in Ohio. Could this affect the outcome?
BSB: High Stakes for STJ and Ted - Russo foresees major embarrassment for Clinton supporters Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones and Gov. Ted Strickland if the former's 11th Congressional District goes for Obama by 75%-25% or better, based on the trend among African-American voters nationwide, and if that margin tips Ohio into the Obama column.
Plunderbund: Hoping Edwards Endorses Clinton - Obama supporter Eric explains why he now wants John Edwards to give the nod to Clinton.
MCDAC: Evangelicals Voting Democratic - The MCDAC Blog notes that Zogby asked Democratic voters in Missouri and Tennessee if they were Christian evangelicals, and found that they accounted for a fifth of Democratic votes in Missouri and nearly a third in Tennessee.
I just got a robocall from Hillary Clinton, telling me that my absentee ballot should be arriving soon and urging me to vote for her. I imagine that this call will go out to every Democratic voter who sent in an absentee ballot application.
It was a rather slow, measured delivery, sounding very much read-from-a-script, and emphasized "real solutions for our nation and Ohio." She mentioned health care and ending the war in Iraq.
Newsy bits from the battlegrounds, by a blogger who was out of the loop for four days:
OH-02: No Presidential Endorsement by Wulsin & Other News Items - Victoria Wulsin (D-Indian Hill) told the Enquirer editorial board today that she hasn't chosen a favorite in the presidential race. Meanwhile, Pho reports that Wulsin is one of only 18 Democratic candidates on a list at Swing State Project of those with cash advantage at year end over a Republican incumbent, $344,315 to $124,857. And blogger Bill Sloat is providing great ongoing coverage of this race. He reported yesterday that underfunded GOP challenger State Rep. Tom Brinkman (R) was endorsed by the small-circulation newspaper Christian Citizen, and on Saturday that Wulsin requested the cancellation of the Clermont County OH-02 straw poll because opponent Steve Black (D-Indian Hill) is mourning the passing of his father, retired judge Robert L. Black. The latter story contains interesting comments by Clermont County Democratic Chairman Dave Lane about Black having switched parties:
"My personal view is that any time that a Republican chooses to see the light and join us, well, he is welcome. We should take all the Republicans we can get. I don't hold that against Steve Black. A person who switches parties from Republican to Democrat to run for office, I don't question that at all. ... [Paul] Hackett, he had shadows of Republicanism in his history. There was some history of him switching back and forth."
Wulsin wil speak at a Shawnee Labor Council Meeting on Gallia Street in Portsmouth tonight [2/11] at 7:00 p.m. and at the Brown County Democrats Club Meeting at 509 North Main in Georgetown at 7:00 p.m. tomorrow [2/12].
OH-03: Turner Ethics Questioned - Dave of Into My Own writes today about an important story in Sunday's Dayton Daily News, detailing a questionable $1.5 million no-bid contract awarded by a committee composed of Turner campaign supporters to a small marketing firm owned by his wife, Lori Turner. Dave lists important questions that need answers in light of today's report. The blogger Mr Liberal also wrote about the story today on DailyKos.com.
Meanwhile, David Esrati (D-Dayton) is using his campaign blog to support Barack Obama in the presidential race. I interviewed Jane Mitakides (D) last week (I hope to get that posted tomorrow) and she said she has not picked a favorite candidate yet.
OH-04: Carroll to Give Keynote Speech at Presidents Day Luncheon - Mike Carroll (D-Mansfield) will headline the Hardin County Democratic Party's annual President's Day event at Jolene's Cozy Cafe, 507 E. Columbus Street in Kenton, Ohio from noon to 2:00 p.m. on Saturday, February 23rd.
OH-05: Radcliffe Campaigning Hard - Iraq veteran Scott Radcliffe (R-Perrysburg) is giving newly elected Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) a real run for his money if this glowing account of his visit to Van Wert last Friday is any indication. He sounds like a good candidate.
OH-07: Odds and Ends - Bill Conner (D-BEavercreek) will be at a "Meet the Candidate" party this Saturday, February 16th at 5:00 p.m. at the Greene County Democratic Headquarters, 87 E.Main Street in Xenia, Ohio. Dave Woolever (D-Stoutsville) has won his fourth labor endorsement, this time from IATSE Stage Hands Local 12. Dr. Richard Wyderski (D-Beavercreek) has upgraded his campaign site.
UPDATE: OH-10 Debate - Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland) was a late addition to the Democratic debate taped for Time Warner yesterday afternoon [2/11]. Anthony Fossaceca, campaign manager for Rosemary Palmer (D-Cleveland), live-blogged the event here, and Openers has the audio. Time Warner will broadcast the debate repeatedly between now and the primary, first at 8:00 p.m. tomorrow night [2/13] on Channel 15 in Cleveland, Channel 23 in Akron, and Channel 22 elsewhere, and again at 1:00 p.m. on Saturday and 9:00 p.m. on Sunday. The candidates will debate again in a sold-out event hosted by the City Club of Cleveland at noon on February 19th, which will be broadcast on Channels 3 and 5 in Cleveland and on public radio WCPN 90.3.
UPDATE: OH-12 Events - Russ Goodwin (D) has his first big fundraising event tonight [2/12] at 5:30 p.m. at the Havana Night Club, 862 N. High Street in Columbus. Rival David Robinson (D) has announced that he will attend a meeting of the Democratic Network of Southeast Delaware County at 9:00 a.m. on Saturday, February 16th at the Community Library, 44 Burrer Drive in Sunbury, Ohio.
UPDATE: OH-16 Candidates Profiled - The Canton Repository published a pair of stories about the candidates on both sides in this high-profile open seat race. Democrats John Boccieri and Mary Cirellia are virtually indistinguishable on the issues, but Boccieri is far ahead in fund-raising and endorsements. Cirelli bashed Boccieri on still living outside the district (he plans to move to Alliance when his daughters are out of school), and Boccieri responded: "Her whole campaign is about where I put my head on a pillow at night," Boccieri said. "My whole campaign is about where people go to work in the morning."
UPDATE: OH-18 Not So Close After All - David at Ohio Valley Politics highlights a story in the Zanesville Times Recorder, revealing that neither ODP Chair Chris Refern nor ORP Deputy Chair Kevin DeWine regard the 0H-18 race as among the most competitive in Ohio. They think that OH-1, OH-2, OH-15 and OH-14 are the competitive ones, not OH-18. This is a huge testament to the fundraising and high visibility of Rep. Zack Space (D-Dover), as well as a signal of the relatively low profile of his three GOP opponents and the financial strains on the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Roll Call reports that disgraced and convicted GOP bribe-taker Bob Ney (R) will be released from his minimum security prison later this month, and Ohio Democratic Party spokesman Alex Goepfert is looking forward to seeing him on the campaign trail:
"With John McCain promising voters nothing short of a third term for George Bush, Bob Ney will do an excellent job reminding Ohioans of exactly what the first two terms of the Bush presidency have meant for our state," said Goepfert. "Any word on Tom Noe?"
Dispatch reporter Joe Hallet talked to Gov. Ted Strickland today after the latter cast an early ballot, and Ohio's leading Clinton supporter didn't mince words:
Ohio is critical. Ohio and Texas, I think, will be the firewall that makes it possible for Sen. Clinton to win the primary election and eventually to become the president ... I think it would be very difficult for her to proceed to eventual victory without winning Ohio. I'm not saying that's not possible, but I think it would make it much more difficult.
Sen. Obama is a person with great strengths and very significant talent, [but] Ohioans are Clinton kind of voters. Thus far, working people, blue-collar people are the people who have supported her strongly."
This is essentially the same point that Redhorse has been making for a while, i.e., Ohio is Clinton's make-or-break state ("[I]f Obama wins Ohio, he'll win the nomination; if he loses, it's a toss-up").
Political Director Erin Hill of ActBlue.com, the netroots fundraising site, sent out an email today that makes an important point:
The Republicans have their nominee. Time and time again, this is where Democrats are most vulnerable: we take months to select a nominee, and we fight divided against a unified Republican voice.
We can't afford to stand idly by during the final phase of our nomination process while the GOP regroups and seizes the initiative. We need to start fighting back now.
That's why ActBlue.com has set up a special contribution account to start building a war chest, to help our nominee even before he or she is chosen.
The GOP did a good job of this in the 5th Congressional District special election last year. State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) and State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) wore each down in the Republican primary, but there was a substantial sum of money in a special political fund waiting to give the winner a boost.
Let's support this effort. Give what you can to make sure our nominee hits the ground running.
Just in from the campaign, Obama is on the air statewide beginning tomorrow with a health care ad called "Mother":
It's a good ad, but it isn't freshly minted for Ohio. This ad was posted to YouTube four months ago, and ran in Missouri in January.
Here's an excerpt from the email message announcing the ad buy:
Health care costs have risen sharply for Ohio families -- since 2000, the average premium has increased by 34.6% to over four thousand dollars per year. Over 1.2 million Ohioans lack health insurance, including 206,000 children. Obama’s plan mandates coverage for children while lowering costs an average of $2,500 for a typical family, making health care coverage affordable for every American to obtain.
“The health care crisis in Ohio has reached an epidemic level, but it won’t just take a plan to reform our health care system, it will take leadership that can unite Americans to take on the special interests and prevail,” said State Representative Ted Celeste. “Barack Obama worked with Democrats, independents, and Republicans to expand health care coverage to an additional 150,000 Illinois residents, and he is the candidate who will pass universal coverage as president. Obama’s plan does more to cut health care costs than any other plan – making coverage affordable for all Americans by reducing costs an average of $2,500 for families. To lower costs and put the American dream back in reach for Ohio families, Barack Obama is the candidate who will bring change we can believe in.”
It's interesting that Obama is leading off with health care as an issue in Ohio, not the foreclosure crisis or the sagging economy in general. (It's also interesting that Ted Celeste is featured in the email.) In their recent endorsement interviews with the editors of the Plain Dealer, Clinton proposed a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures to allow homeowners and banks to negotiate workouts, and also emphasized her call for a five-year freeze on interest rates. Obama objected to the five-year freeze idea on the ground that it would result in a significant increase in interest rates. Obama's comments on urban policy weren't as focused on foreclosures:
Obama proposes creating a housing trust fund that would finance affordable housing in mixed-income neighborhoods.
He would also designate 20 "promise neighborhoods" in areas with the highest levels of poverty and crime. These would be modeled after the Harlem Children's Zone, which provides a range of community services, like early-childhood education and youth violence prevention programs.
He has also proposed adding a White House urban policy director to track how federal money is spent in urban areas such as Cleveland.
Having the two candidates zero in on Ohio over the next three weeks is our opportunity to force them to address key issues in our state, including the Great Lakes Water Compact as well as the foreclosure crisis, jobs, the economy, and developing alternative energy as a growth industry here. We should all be paying close attention to what they say or don't say on these topics and demand more detail if we aren't getting it.
Medina is a great example of a suburban-rural county that has potential to go from red to purple, and eventually to blue, but we won't get there without building up the local Democratic party and getting good Democrats into local office. Here's an important fundraiser for county commissioner candidate Brian Feron (D), attempting to unseat incumbent Patricia Geissman (R).
Details after the break -- h/t MCDAC Blog
Freshman State Rep. Armond Budish (D-Beachwood) caused a stir when he reported raising an extraordinary $536,000 in the second half of 2007, leading to talk of him being "the front-runner to lead Democrats next year." Now it looks like he won't have to spend any of that cash winning the primary, and maybe not the general election either.
It's a bizarre tale of two brothers. As Michael K. McIntyre reports in his Tipoff column in The Plain Dealer today, Isaac Powell filed as a Democrat to face Budish in the primary, and Jerry Powell filed as a Republican to face him in the general election. The problem was that Isaac let Jerry sign Isaac's nominating petition, which is forbidden since Jerry is a registered Republican. The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections booted Isaac off the primary ballot. A similar challenge was filed against Jerry Powell, charging that signing Isaac's petition disqualifies him from running as a Republican. McIntyre says that challenge was dismissed on procedural grounds, leaving me to wonder if it could be renewed. I am trying to pin that down and will update with any new information I get.
UPDATE: I have calls in to Budish and election attorney Don McTigue. Meanwhile, Mike McIntyre tells me that the complaint against Jerry Powell was dismissed on the ground that the complainant was not a Republican.
The one-time front-runner is dismissive of recent setbacks and campaign staff turmoil and claims to be looking ahead to an upcoming major primary for a momentum swing. It sounds like I'm talking about Rudy Giuliani looking ahead to Florida, but instead it's Hillary Clinton counting on OT Tuesday as a firewall against the Obama onslaught.
(I heard someone on cable talking about the March 4th primary as "Junior Tuesday," and clearly we need to stop that nonsense. There's nothing "junior" about the last two heavyweight primaries possibly deciding the contest. I'm calling it OT Tuesday, for Ohio-Texas but also for Overtime. The nomination wasn't decided on Super Tuesday, so now it's sudden death in an extended contest.)
Over the weekend, Obama won all four nominating contests and even won a Grammy ("Best Spoken Album" for his autobiographical "The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream" in the form of a book recording). Hillary Clinton switched campaign managers from one long-time aide to another, and Bill Clinton lost his Grammy bid (audio version of "Giving: How Each of Us Can Change the World"). Obama is favored in the Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. nominating contests tomorrow. It's pretty obvious which way the wind is blowing.
I just got back from spending time with family in Wisconsin. One of my brothers is a registered Republican in California, but he says he thought about voting for Barack Obama in the California primary and may actually do so in November. (His high school senior daughter is an enthusiastic Obama fan, as are my other nieces.) It's nothing about Obama's policies that appeals to my brother, it's his message of hope, optimism, and most of all change. My brother is deeply embarrassed that he voted for George W. Bush and he's ready to support a candidate who promises to take the country in a new direction and into a new era.
My family all wanted to know how I thought Ohio would go. My wife and I have heard that question from friends around the country as well. (OT Tuesday is huge on the national radar screen.) I tell everyone that Clinton has a lot of institutional advantages in Ohio (including strong support from a popular governor and the only African-American member of Congress in the state), but I see signs everywhere that the trend is toward Obama (with Sunday's endorsement by the Plain Dealer a significant indicator). There is enough time between now and March 4th for Obama to score the upset.
A few weeks ago I heard from some supporters of returning candidate Bev Campbell (D-Gahanna) who were upset by the process involved in the endorsement of opponent Nancy Garland (D-New Albany) by the Franklin County Democratic Party. They felt that State Rep. Ted Celeste (D-Grandview) had exerted undue influence over the endorsement proceedings, and suspected Celeste of acting more out of a desire to advance an ally (Garland is his wife's cousin) in support of his leadership ambitions than on the merits of the candidates. I wrote a post detailing their concerns, balanced by responses from Celeste and an official with the county party.
I became acquainted with Bev Campbell during the 2006 campaign and I admire her. She is a person who has overcome great misfortune in life and she displayed her tenacity in a hard-fought campaign in 2006 that came within a handful of votes of success despite a lack of early support from the party. Nancy Garland was unknown to me when I wrote my prior post.
I appreciated the concerns of Campbell's supporters, but from my perspective the paramount concern is not how the endorsement vote was handled but ensuring that the merits of the two candidates are presented fairly to the primary voters and that the best candidate for the general election is chosen. I have since spoken to both Campbell and Garland and reviewed their background information. I have learned that Nancy Garland is an impressive candidate with much to offer. I decided to write this follow-up post setting out information about the two contenders.
Continued after the break.
A terrific resource for voters has returned. The Judicial Candidates Rating Coalition, made up of The Cleveland Bar Association, The Cuyahoga County Bar Association, The Cuyahoga Criminal Defense Lawyers Association, The Norman S. Minor Bar Association, and The Ohio Women's Bar Association, has posted the latest edition of "Judge4Yourself.com," a concise table that compares all the judges running in Cuyahoga County by compiling ratings from the participating organizations and endorsements by the The Plain Dealer and The Call & Post. As CoolCleveland.com said of this service lst year:
Confused by all the judges you'll be voting for? Here's the criteria for a good judge: impartiality, integrity, temperament, diligence, professional competence. This non-partisan site should help.
Ordinary folks care about having good judges but it's hard to keep track of judicial races because there are so many and because judges generally stay out of the public arena. This is a quick and easy way for voters to get some sense of the candidates on the ballot. It's a great idea that other counties should emulate.
Many people have the understandable belief that all "country music" is about pick-up trucks, drinking beer and right wing politics. (Well, two outta three ain't bad...)
My dear friend Tim O'Brien is one of the greatest bluegrass musicians of our generation. He was a founder of the ground breaking "newgrass" band Hot Rize. Actually, I bet that you HAVE heard his work, because he has appeared on HUNDREDS of recording projects. And his songs have been covered by everybody from Kathy Mattea to the Dixie Chicks. In 2006, he won the Grammy for "Best Trad Folk Recording."
Tim's latest project "Chameleon" (Or "All Tim, All the Time" as I call it...) will be released on March 25.
Tim is also a member of the Music Row Democrats. If you visit their site, you can download Tim's song "Republican Blues."
The "TransAtlantic Sessions" is a TV series on the BBC from Scotland, which brings together some of the finest American roots artists with their counterparts from the UK.
This song features Tim with two of his frequent co-conspirators, Darrell Scott and Jerry Douglas. Here they are joined by a crew of GREAT folk musicians from Scotland and Ireland.
Take a few minutes and experience "Brother Wind." Trust me... it'll get your head straight for the rest of the weekend.
Jeff does a great job at covering Ohio politics. But he's off in that alternative non-blog universe that we call "real life." In the meantime, I'm left to hold down the fort.
(Yes, I know, some of you are saying... "big mistake." Don't worry-- Jeff will be back in Ohio by Monday.)
So as we await the now suddenly critical Ohio Primary, I'm going to post a couple of items that are more cultural or social in nature, but which do have political ramifications.